The Oct WTI trading session had a high of 76.91, a low of 74.05 and closed at 75.91, cash price is at 74.43, while open interest came in at 304,553. Higher on the day by 1.39 (1.87%). CLV traded below its 50 day (78.45) but above its 20 day (75.44) and its 7 day (74.74) moving averages. Crude oil gained on the day after two straight losing days as a better than expected GDP number came in and more information has been gathered on the totality of the Libyan crude blockade. According to figures released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning, GDP increased at a 3% annualized rate for the April-June period, revised up from the earlier estimate of 2.8%, bullish for crude and the U.S. economy in my opinion. According to Reuters calculations, roughly 700,00 bpd of oil output will be offline in Eastern Libya. UBS Group AG has revised down its growth forecast for China for this year and next, attributing the change to a more severe-than-anticipated slump in the property market, which shows no signs of bottoming out. I still believe there’s resistance around that 50 day MA, and a floor around ~71, but if we can settle above it one of these days we could find some upward support and test 80, but until then the bearish supply/economic news and the fact we are approaching the end of the summer driving season has me thinking that those factors will outweigh the war premium and technical movement. Yesterday the EIA reported a slight decline of 800,000 barrels in U.S. commercial crude inventories for the week ending August 23, this was below the 2.7m forecast. The EIA also showed U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaging 16.9 million barrels per day, up by 175,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week’s average. This is the second week straight we’ve had a decline in domestic crude inventories.
