Soybean demand has been missing recently up until this week. This is the 2nd day in a row of morning flash sales as China bought an additional 132,000 metric tons of US new crop beans and Mexico bought 239,492 metric tons. Yesterday USDA reported 332,000 metric tons of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to China during the 2024/2025 marketing year and 110,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This week’s pullback in the US Dollar to an 8-month low maybe stimulating some buying or at least some short covering. Even so, the new crop US sales book is still well behind average in my opinion. The crop tour found better results today than yesterday. Bearish supply fundamentals in beans will be tough to shake especially with the USDA at a 560 million carry. Down the road if we see continued weakness in the US Dollar, the market could see a shift to focus to increasing demand post-harvest. Technical levels of resistance are at 983 to 986. If we can close over these levels the market can re-test 10.20. Support is at 972 and then 948. A close under 948 and its 909, which is 30% lower for the year. Trade the charts!
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