8/12/24
The Cattle Markets may have bounced on Friday, but that was another opportunity to sell into strength. After taking a fresh look at the Cattle Markets, it reinforced my Bearish Market opinion. Today October’24 Live Cattle were 1.12 ½ lower and settled at 180.02 ½. Today’s high was 181.50 and the 1-month high is 189.05. Today’s low was 179.85 and the 1-month low is 176.20. The 52-week low is currently 168.50. Since 7/12 October‘24 Live Cattle are 3.87 ½ lower or more than 2%. The Feeders gave back over half of Friday’s gains today. September‘24 Feeder Cattle were 2.10 lower today and settled at 239.50. Today’s high was 242.65 and the 1-month high is 260.55. Today’s low was 239.15 and the 1-month low is 236.57 ½. The 52-week low is currently 233.05. Since 7/12 September‘24 Feeder Cattle are 18.60 lower or 7.21%. The Hogs settled near the highs today. October‘24 Lean Hogs were 35 cents higher today and settled at 74.32 ½. Today’s high was 74.65 and the 1-month high is 78.70. Today’s low was 73 37 ½ and the 1-month low is 69.20. The 52-week low is 68.05. Since 7/12 October’24 Lean Hogs are 4.17 ½ higher or almost 6%. October’24 Live Cattle traded within 9 cents of the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low number of 181.59, and then headed lower for the day. I feel that number could hold as resistance moving forward. September’24 Feeder’s gave half of Friday’s gains back today, and I feel the rest of the break lower will be coming soon. My first number lower in September’24 Feeders is 231.50, and is $1.55 below the 52-week low of 233.05. I have been told by many of you that the Cattle Markets can’t break, well, the September’24 Feeders were trading 258.00 then. Another 10% break from here is feasible. The people trading the Cattle Markets, are not all ranchers, and don’t care about the cash market. Cattle is a global commodity, traded by people all over the world. Market factors have changed, and that needs to be understood. It’s time to move forward and leave your Broker-In-Law behind.
Seven months ago I said that it was the start of a special move in Soybean Market, and I hope you road the Market all way down. Today November’24 Soybeans were 16 ½ cents lower and settled at 986, yes 986. Today’s high was 1002 ½ and the 1-month high is 1086 ¾. Today’s low was 975 ½ and that is also the new 1-month and 52-week lows as well. Since 7/12 November’24 Soybeans are 77 ¼ cents lower or more than 7%. It was good to see the Corn higher. Today December‘24 Corn was 6 ½ cents higher and settled at 401 ½. Today’s high was 403 and the 1-month high is 423 ¾. Today’s low was 390 ¼ and that is also the new 1-month and 52-week low as well. Since 7/12 December’24 Corn is 13 ¼ cents lower or more than 3%. The Wheat Market was lower today. September’24 Wheat was 5 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 536 ¾. Today’s high was 547 and the 1-month high is 556 ¼. Today’s low was 528 and the 1-month and 52-week low is 514 ¼. Since 7/12 September’24 Wheat is 14 cents lower or more than 2 ½%. The break is not over. I feel the Bean Market will head for the 950 level, push through it, and see how close to 900 level the market can get. I still feel that the Corn and Wheat Markets can rally from here. The WASDE Report showed enormous Soybean ending stocks of 345 million bushels for 2023/2024 and ending stocks of 560 million bushels for 2024/2025 With a yield of 183.1 bushels per acre. The ending stocks for Corn and Wheat were less then expected, and can be seen in the chart below. When the shorts in the Corn Market start to unwind, there could be a substantial bounce in the Corn Market. We are offering OTC Markets as well, and I will be in Boone Iowa at the Farm Progress Show at the end of the month, if you want to talk about it.
| U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2024-25 | ||||||
| Aug | Avg | High | Low | Jul | 2023-24 | |
| Corn | 15,146 | 15,103 | 15,284 | 14,920 | 15,100 | 15,342 |
| Soybeans | 4,589 | 4,469 | 4,537 | 4,396 | 4,435 | 4,165 |
| All Wheat | 1,982 | 2,016 | 2,035 | 1,982 | 2,008 | 1,812 |
| Winter | 1,361 | 1,348 | 1,396 | 1,329 | 1,342 | 1,248 |
| HRW | 776 | 766 | 788 | 755 | 763 | 601 |
| SRW | 342 | 345 | 349 | 340 | 344 | 449 |
| White | 288 | 237 | 280 | 224 | 234 | 198 |
| Other Spring | 544 | 580 | 600 | 540 | 578 | 505 |
| Durum | 77 | 90 | 95 | 88 | 89 | 59 |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2023-24 | ||||||
| Aug | Avg | High | Low | Jul | ||
| Corn | 1,867 | 1,882 | 1,977 | 1,825 | 1,877 | |
| Soybeans | 345 | 347 | 360 | 332 | 345 | |
| Wheat | 702 | 702 | 705 | 702 | 702 | |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2024-25 | ||||||
| Aug | Avg | High | Low | Jul | ||
| Corn | 2,074 | 2,092 | 2,295 | 1,987 | 2,097 | |
| Soybeans | 560 | 472 | 540 | 396 | 435 | |
| Wheat | 828 | 860 | 876 | 830 | 856 | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2023-24 | ||||||
| Aug | Avg | High | Low | Jul | ||
| Corn | 308.5 | 309.7 | 313.5 | 308.0 | 309.1 | |
| Soybeans | 112.4 | 110.9 | 112.5 | 108.8 | 111.3 | |
| Wheat | 262.4 | 261.0 | 262.0 | 260.0 | 261.0 | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2024-25 | ||||||
| Aug | Avg | High | Low | Jul | ||
| Corn | 310.2 | 311.2 | 315.0 | 307.0 | 311.6 | |
| Soybeans | 134.3 | 127.6 | 130.5 | 125.6 | 127.8 | |
| Wheat | 256.6 | 257.3 | 260.0 | 254.0 | 257.2 | |
-Bill
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
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