7/15/24
The Livestock Markets were mixed today, without much price action. It was a weak attempt to break the Fats today. August’24 Live Cattle were 25 cents lower today and settled at 182.12 ½. Today’s high was 183.37 ½ and the 1-month high is 188.25. Today’s low was 181.85 and the 1-month low is 180.35. Since 6/14 August’24 Live Cattle are 80 cents lower or almost ½%. The Feeders just stayed positive for the day. August’24 Feeder Cattle were 12 ½ cents higher today and settled at 258.77 ½. Today’s high was 260.25 and the 1-month high is 263.90. Today’s low was 257.95 and the 1-month low is 253.45. Since 6/14 August’24 Feeder Cattle are 2.92 ½ lower or just over 1%. The Hogs were fractionally lower on a slow day. August’24 Lean Hogs were 2 ½ cents lower today and settled at 88.42 ½. Today’s high was 89.80 and the 1-month high is 92.42 ½. Today’s low was 88.07 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 83.67 ½. Since 6/14 August’24 Lean Hogs are 2.12 ½ lower or almost 2 ½%. August’24 Live Cattle are still holding strong, but I don’t know how much longer that will last. If August’24 Live Cattle break through last week’s low of 180.82, I feel it will drop to 178.04 quickly. The 200-Day moving average is 177.93 and the 50% Retracement from the 52-week high/low is 178.04. If the market trades through 178.04 and I feel it will, it will trigger continued selling for the near future. If the Fats do break, and the Feeders trade through 256.21, look out below. I believe that could put the August’24 Feeders South of 245. Last week’s average dressed weight was 844 pounds, two pounds lighter than the week before, but still 30 pounds heavier than this time last year. The Hogs appeared to be spectating today, and waiting to see what the Cattle Markets will do.
The Soybeans broke again today, and they will continue to until the pain threshold is reached, and the fire sale is complete. November’24 Soybeans were 25 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 1040. Today’s high was 1064 and the 1-month high is 1149 ¾. Today’s low was 1038 ½ and that is also the new 1-month low and the new 52-week contract low. The Corn dropped more than a dime today. December’24 Corn was 10 ½ cents lower today and settled at 404 ¼. Today’s high was 416 and the 1-month high is 470. Today’s low was 403 ¼ and the 1-month low and 52-week low is 403. Since 6/14 December’24 Corn is 66 cents lower or just over 14%. The Wheat Market continues to plunge straight down. September’24 Wheat was 18 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 532 ½. Today’s high was 552 ½ and the 1-month high is 627. Today’s low was 531 and that is also the new 1-month low and new 52-week contract low. Since 6/14 September’24 Wheat is 96 ½ cents lower or more than 15%. November’24 Soybeans made new contract lows, again today. That will be a repeated pattern until the bottom is found. There is a record short position in the Bean Market. The Funds have not been close to this short since 2019. The shorts smell blood in the water, and that is never a good thing. I expect to see continued probing lower in the market, to find the stops, and expect it to continue in the overnight trade as well. The weather as a whole has been good, so the crops are good, and the forecast looks perfect, without much demand. When the stops/pain threshold is found, it could turn into an ugly feeding frenzy, until a bottom is found. I feel that only very large purchases from China can slow this down. There is some unwinding of short positions in the Corn and Wheat Markets, and some have stepped in and are now long the Corn Market. If you need to buy something I would start with the Soybean Oil, or Corn Markets.
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
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