6/12/24
The Cattle Markets were a little lower today while the Hogs had a nice rally. August’24 Live Cattle were 60 cents lower today and settled at 178.32 ½. Today’s high was 179.62 ½ and the 1-month high is 182.15. Today’s low was 177.90 and the 1-month low is 172.70. Since 5/10 August’24 Live Cattle are 4.10 higher or almost 2 ½%. The Feeders were slightly lower today. August’24 Feeder Cattle were 7 ½ lower today and settled at 257.57 ½. Today’s high was 259.15 and the 1-month high is 264.95. Today’s low was 256.85 and the 1-month low is 250.27 ½. Since 5/10 August’24 Feeder Cattle are 6.57 ½ higher or just over 2 ½%. The Hogs had their best day in a while. July’24 Lean Hogs were 1.42 ½ higher today and settled at 93.70. Today’s high was 94.75 and the 1-month high is 103.10. Today’s low was 92.52 ½ and the 1-month low is 91.80. Since 5/10 July’24 Leans Hogs are 7.85 lower or close to 8%. There was not much action in the Cattle Markets today. August’24 Live Cattle settled in the middle of the day’s range and managed to close between the 100-Day moving average of 178.21 ½ and the 200-Day moving average of 178.41 ¾. August’24 Feeders followed the same pattern and closed fractionally lower, right between the 50-Day moving average of 255.22 ¾ and the 100-Day moving average of 260.89 ½. The Hogs have been beaten down recently, but today was a different story. July’24 Hogs settled about a dollar below the day’s high of 94.75 and about 8 dollars below the 50-Day moving average. There is another Cattle on Feed Report next Friday the 21st. I still feel the Cattle Markets can slide lower from here.
The WASDE Report was released this morning, and that was about it. The Beans tried to break and then tried to rally but ended the day almost unchanged. July’24 Soybeans were ¾ of a cent lower today and settled at 1177 ¼. Today’s high was 1186 ½ and the 1-month high is 1258 ¼. Today’s low was 1171 and that is also the new 1-month low. The 52-week low is 1140 ½. Since 5/10 July’24 Soybeans are 41 ¾ cents lower or almost 3 ½%. The Corn Market gained a few cents today. July’24 Corn was 4 ¾ cents higher and settled at 454 ¼. Today’s high was 455 and the 1-month high is 475 ½. Today’s low was 448 ½ and the 1-month low is 438 ¼. Since 5/10 July’24 Corn is 15 ½ cents lower or more than 3%. The Wheat Market was all over the place again and settled in the middle of the trading range. July’24 Wheat was 9 ½ cents lower today and settled at 617. Today’s high was 627 ¾ and the 1-month high is 720. Today’s low was 610 ½ and the 1-month low is 605 ½. Since 5/10 July’24 Wheat is 46 ½ cents lower or 7%. The WASDE Report did not end up being a market mover today. US ending stocks for Beans were raised from 445 to 455. The corn came in right on the number at 2102, and the US ending stocks for Wheat dropped from 766 to 758. The USDA did change the Brazilian Soybean production number from 154 million down to 153 million, but a larger cut was expected. Tomorrow CONAB will release their updated numbers. There is currently a wide gap between the USDA numbers and CONAB’s numbers. If CONAB raises their production numbers close to the USDA’s numbers, there will be a big drop lower. If there is not a change is their numbers, it will still be an interesting trading day, with a large gap in the data. July’24 Soybeans are 20+ cents below the 50-day and 100-Day averages. July’24 Corn sits a couple cents above the 50-Day and 100-Day averages, and July’24 Wheat settled just below the 200-Day moving average of 618 ¼. The World ending stocks are listed on the chart below. The Crop Acreage Report will be released at the end of the month on the 28th. I am expecting it to show that more acres of Soybeans were planted then were expected, and fewer acres of Corn planted. If the weather remains perfect until then, I feel the Beans will once again head lower.
–Bill
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