6/7/24
It was an action-packed week. The Livestock and Grain markets have had big swings recently. The Fats could not stay positive today. August’24 Live Cattle were 30 cents lower and settled at 177.17 ½. Today’s high was 178.25 and the 1-month high is 182.15. Today’s low was 176.55 and the 1-month low is 172.70. Since 5/7 August’24 Live Cattle are 1.65 higher or almost 1%. The Feeders gained a couple bucks. August’24 Feeder Cattle were 2.07 ½ higher today and settled at 254.92 ½. Today’s high was 255.95 and the 1-month high is 264.95. Today’s low was 251.90 and the 1-month low is 249.05. Since 5/7 August’24 Feeder Cattle are 47 ½ cents higher or about ¼%. The Hogs got a little back today. July’24 Lean Hogs were 52 ½ cents higher today and settled at 93.50. Today’s high was 93.67 ½ and the 1-month high is 103.15. Today’s low was 92.15 and the 1-month low is 91.80. Since 5/7 July’24 Lean Hogs are 9.07 ½ lower or almost 9%. The Cattle Markets were mixed today, as August’24 Live Cattle continued lower for the fourth day in a row, and August’24 Feeder Cattle rebounded today, and stopped the seven-day slide lower. Yesterday it was reported Iowa had its first case of H5N1 in Dairy Cattle. Iowa is the 10th State to have infected Dairy Cattle, and those ten States have accounted for more than 80 cases of H5N1. The world health organization yesterday said a person had died in Mexico that had H5N2, a highly pathogenic Avian influenza. The individual who died was not in good health prior to contracting the disease. The world health organization also said that the H5N2 flu is different than the H5N1 strain found in Dairy Cattle in the US. There was also a report of African swine fever confirmed in Germany. The USDA reported weekly beef export sales of 14,500mt for last week, that is down 8% from the week before. August’24 Live Cattle settled below the 100-Day and 200-Day moving averages again, but above the 50-Day moving average of 175.43. I feel we will trade through that level next week. The August’24 Feeder Cattle settled below all the averages. Bird Flu concerns are still weighing on the Cattle Markets. The feedlots are still full, and the Cattle are 40 pounds heavier than this time late year. If there is a shift in demand it will head lower. The US Stock Markets were all much higher when the Livestock and Grain Markets closed today. Since then, the Markets have turned around and headed much lower, negative for the day, while the US Dollar Index continued to climb.
The Grains were all lower today, The Bean Market lost today, just about what it gained yesterday, and the Wheat Market continued its slide lower. July’24 Soybeans were 20 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1179 ¼. Today’s high was 1202 ½ and the 1-month high is 1258 ¼. Today’s low was 1174 ¼ and that is also the new 1-month low. Since 5/7 July’24 Soybeans are 67 ¼ cents lower or almost 5 ½%. July’24 Corn was 3 ¼ cents lower and settled at 448 ¾. Today’s high was 454 ¼ and the 1-month high is 475 ½. Today’s low was 444 ¼ and the 1-month low is 438 ¼. Since 5/7 July’24 Corn is 18 ¼ cents lower or almost 4%. The Wheat Market continued South today. July’24 Wheat was 12 cents lower and settled at 627 ½. Today’s high was 639 ½ and the 1-month high is 720. Today’s low was 618 ¼ and that is the new 1-month low as well. Since 5/7 July’24 Wheat is 15 ¼ cents lower or almost 2 ½%. The Soybean Market broke back down today after yesterday’s gains. July’24 Soybeans traded through the 1-month low and set a new one with today’s low of 1174 ¼. There will be lots of Soybeans this Fall, and the demand is hard to see. Last week’s export sales were on the lower end of estimates at 189,600mt for the old crop, and new crop Soybean sales were awful at just 73,800mt, and without any purchases from China. China’s Soybean imports have dropped almost 5 ½% compared to last year. The Corn Market looked strong yesterday, but not today. July’24 Corn traded down to 444 ¼ today, just six cents above the 1-month low of 438 ¼. Corn exports continue to be strong, and with the cut in acreage I feel the Corn Market will rally soon. If there are any weather problems here this Summer, the Corn will take off. The Wheat Market continues to crumble. July’24 Wheat traded down to, and through the 200-Day moving average of 619 ¼ and set a new 1-month low of 618 ¼. There are still problems with the Russian crop. First it was frost and now it is hot and dry. Forecasts are for hot and dry weather to continue, with a possibility of scattered showers, not widespread rain coverage. The weather in Ukraine is dry as well, and the month of May was the driest in 30 years. The crop can still rebound if the needed rains arrive, but if it stays hot and dry, all bets are off. I am still Bearish the Soybean Market and feel the Corn and Wheat Markets have a good chance to trade higher from these levels.
–Bill
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