6/3/24
The Livestock and Grain Markets both pushed lower today, with the Cattle Market bouncing late in the day. Live Cattle closed higher today. August’24 Live Cattle were 42 ½ cents higher today and settled at 178.87 ½. Today’s high was 179.32 ½ and the 1-month high is 182.15. Today’s low was 177.07 ½ and the 1-month low is 172.70. Since 5/3 August’24 Live Cattle are 4.10 higher or almost 3 ½%. The Feeders were down over 2 ½ dollars at one point today. August’24 Feeder Cattle were 20 cents lower today and settled at 256.20. Today’s high was 257.42 ½ and the 1-month high is 264.95. Today’s low was 253.60 and the 1-month low is 249.05. Since 5/3 August’24 Feeder Cattle are 90 cents higher or almost ½%. The Hogs slipped lower and closed five cents off the lows. July’24 Lean Hogs were 85 cents lower today and settled at 96.27 ½. Today’s high was 98.20 and the 1-month high is 104.55. Today’s low was 96.22 ½ and the 1-month low is 95.87 ½. Since 5/3 July’24 Lean Hogs are 6.52 ½ lower or almost 6 ½%. The Cattle Markets decided to brake today. August’24 Feeders were 2.60 lower at one point today but rallied back late in the day to close just 20 cents lower. August’24 Fat Cattle were more than a dollar lower, before they bounced off the lows and closed higher on the day. The Hogs were not as lucky today and closed just off the lows. The CME changed the daily price limits today in the Cattle Markets. Starting today the limit on Live Cattle is $7.50, and the daily limit on Feeder Cattle is $9.25. I have been Bearish the Cattle Markets, and I will continue to be, until I see something to change my mind. Last week’s export sales were awful, down 27% from the week before at 15,700t and also below the four-week average of 16,100t. Beef sales for 2024 are 456,000t down from 487,000t last year, and 14 ½% below the five-year average of 534,000t, for the same time frame. Last week the average dressed weight was 852 pounds, 1 pound heavier than the week before, and 4% heavier than a year ago at 817, and 40 pounds heavier than the 5-year average at 812 pounds. August’24 Live Cattle traded through the 100-Day moving average of 177 85 ½. The Market closed more than a dollar above the 100-Day moving average, but since that support has been breached, I anticipate it trading through there again soon. I still feel the Livestock Markets will test their monthly lows, and today’s price action could be just the beginning of the move lower. If you have not seen the August’24 Feeder Cattle Charts from last Friday 5/31, take a look now. Continue to keep an eye on the July’24 $95.00 Hog level as well.
The Beans finally broke through the $12.00 level today. July’24 Soybeans were 20 cents lower today and settled at 256.20. Today’s high was 257.42 ½ and the 1-month high is 1258 ¼. Today’s low was 1182 ½ and that is also the new monthly low. Since 5/3 July’24 Soybeans are 30 ½ cents lower or 2 ½%. The Corn followed the Beans lower. July’24 Corn was 2 ¾ cents lower and settled at 443 ½. Today’s high was 449 and the 1-month high is 475 ½. Today’s low was 439 and that is also the new 1-month low. The Wheat had a wild day with a 30 ¼ cent trading range. July’24 Wheat was 5 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 672 ¾. Today’s high was 697 ¾ and the 1-month high is 720. Today’s low was 667 ½ and the 1-month low is 609 ½. Since 5/3 July’24 Wheat is 50 ½ cents higher or over 11%. The Soybean Market began its slide lower today. The Soybean Market is still overpriced and will continue to break in my opinion. The weather forecast looks good for most of the planting area this Summer. The US Stock Market was down big again today but rallied back after the Livestock and Grain Markets closed again. The US Dollar Index continued much lower today, as the Grains continued to break. The July’24 Corn had a ten-cent range today and settled on the lower half of today’s trade. July’24 Wheat was 19 ¼ cents higher overnight, and then broke 30 cents, and settled about a nickel off the day’s low. I still feel that the Beans are going to continue to break. There could be bounces in the Market, but I would sell into any strength, until there was a reason not to. I think it’s very possible to see $11.50-$1160 July’24 Soybeans this week. I still feel we will see $11.00 Soybeans this fall. Today, was just one of the volatile days yet to come this summer and Fall. If you are interested in trading these Markets let me know.
–Bill
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