June Lean Hogs opened higher, rallied to the high at 99.30 and then broke down the rest of the session to the low at 97.475. It settled near the low at 97.725. Hogs are in the lower end of its recent trading range, making a new low for the down move on Wednesday at 97.225 and Thursday’s trade staying within the Wednesday range forming an inside candlestick. Settlement was above support at 97.30 so in my opinion support is holding. Exports were disappointing on Thursday, with sales of 24,400 MT, declining 27% from the previous report. Mexico which has been the largest buyer of pork from the US took a breather showing purchases of only 2,600 MT putting them in the lower bracket after being on top of the food chain for a long time. Cutouts and the cash market have been erratic with cutouts struggling at the 100.00 mark and the cash index hovering just above 90.00. We are in the spring buying season as grocers acquire pork for grilling season and the spring holidays, yet prices have stalled. There is still time for the market to right itself as last year saw a rally in the cutouts and cash into the summer. We’ll see!… If price breaks down from 97.30, we could test support at 95.30. If price can hold settlement, it could revisit resistance at 98.475. A run past the May 7th high at 99.45 could test resistance at 100.075.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 98.39 as of 05/08/2024.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 91.28 as of 05/06/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 472,000, which is below last week’s 481,000 and above last year’s 466,104. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 1,908,000, which is below last week’s 1,919,000 and above last year’s 1,848,648.
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, May 14, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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