June Lean Hogs opened lower and traded down to the low at 101.175. It tested the April 15th low at 101.075 and was able to bounce. The rally stalled and a retest of the low took place and it was higher. Bulls came into the market and rallied price the rest of the session to the high at 102.825. It dipped into the close and settled a tick under Wednesday’s settlement at 102.70. Disappointing export sales likely contributed to the early breakdown as it came in at a marketing year low of 21,800 MT. Higher cutouts and a strong Dollar likely led to the pullback in sales. The rally was shored up by a strong mid-morning cutout that put the cutouts at 101.99. Cutouts ended the day giving most of the gains back, up 0.41 to 99.96. This will likely send the cutout index lower on Friday’s report. Even still, cutouts are strong and in a new higher range, from 99 to nearly 103. That is good for the market as slaughter numbers have been stronger that the March slaughter numbers putting more pork production into the marketplace and the cutout hasn’t cratered. Slaughter is expected to decline going forward as seasonal declines kick in, so, I expect cutout and cash prices to remain strong and put futures in contention to test higher levels. We’ll See!… If price can hold settlement, we could test resistance at 104.35. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 101.975and then the April 15th low. Support then comes in at 100.075.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 101.12 as of 04/16/2024.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 91.36 as of 04/16/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 486,000, which is above last week’s 484,000 and last year’s 479,001. The estimated total for the week is 1,940,000, which is above last week’s 1,912,000 and last year’s 1,904,151.
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, April 23, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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