April Lean Hogs opened higher and then broke down hard to an early low. The early cutouts showed strength and price proceeded to rally, taking out the high and make the session high at 84.925. The market couldn’t handle success and it broke down the rest of the session to the low at 83.15. It settled near the low at 83.275. Bears regained control of the market as bulls couldn’t overtake resistance at the rising 21-DMA now at 85.075. They took price past support at 83.325 and were able to get settlement below it. This gives them the advantage going into Tuesday. The cash market has stalled in its advance further giving bearish traders confidence that we could see more downside. Slaughter is starting to decline as last weeks’ total was lower than last week and last year and this week starts off the same with lower slaughter. Are hog numbers starting its seasonal decline or are packers looking to push cutouts higher and reduce cash prices they pay. Are they trying to emulate the same playbook beef packers are using for their business? If futures can reclaim the key level at 83.325, it could test resistance at the rising 21-DMA and resistance at 85.325. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 81.70.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 91.79 as of 03/08/2024.
The Lean Hog Index was unchanged and is at 81.48 as of 03/07/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 468,000, which is below last week’s 493,000 and last year’s 482,246.
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, March 12, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
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