THURSDAY AFTERNOON RADAR – The mid afternoon radar is surprisingly quiet. There are some showers and storms over 30% of northeast ARK, into far southern ILL and a 2nd line over central MS into northwest third of AL, eastern TN into southeast KY. Moderate rains over western NEB and eastern COL with heavy snow in the mountains of WY and COL.
1-5 DAY = 12z Midday GFS (LEFT) and 12z or Midday CANADIAN (right) …
The model agreement this afternoon is pretty good between the GFS and Canadian models. Notice that both of them have a large area of 3-6″/ 75-150mm rains over southwest portions of Iowa, the western half of Missouri, central and eastern Kansas and into the northeast third of Oklahoma. They also have a second area of 2-3″/50-75mm centered over central or southern Illinois …central and southern …Indiana …northern Kentucky. The Canadian continues the heavy rains into all of southern Ohio into southwestern Pennsylvania. All other areas of the central Plains and the Midwest sees a widespread 0.5 to 2.0″ / with 60 to 70% coverage. In addition the Canadian also has 1-3″ 25-75mm rains across east central Texas and northern Mississippi, Tennessee, northern Alabama and far northern Georgia. While the GFS model has rainfall in these areas … it is not quite as heavy.
6-10 DAY = The 6-10d on the midday GFS and Canadian models are in fairly good agreement. They showed much less rain over the WCB as well as all of the eastern Plains while the best rains are generally concentrated over Indiana, Ohio, perhaps far northeast Illinois and portions of Kentucky. Neither of these models show a widespread 3 -6Z” 75-150mm event over any portion of the ECB which is what some forecasters were talking about yesterday. Instead the Canadian and GFS models show a 0.5-1.5″ 12-38mm rain over all of the ECB with 70% coverage. This is a decent rainfall but it’s not a major one.
Also note that both of these models show much less rain over the WCB and all of the Plains.
The GFS and Canadian ensembles are generally supportive of the operational models. They both show significant rains over the ECB area and show much less rain over the WCB and most of the Plains. The Canadian has heavy rain from the Gulf coast and the GFS has a bit more rain over Arkansas and northeastern Texas. But again generally these models are in excellent agreement with each other.
11-15 DAY= There is not much to change here. The GFS has an area of moderate rainfall over most of Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma which extends into portions of Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia. The rest of the Midwest sees some rain but it is not significant over this 5 day interval. The Canadian model is similar but the rainfall amounts are heavier and they cover much of the Deep South but the GFS does not.