RADAR LINK – There is a small cluster of showers and storms over southeast MN and a larger cluster over central KS… and over central COL.
1-5DAY – The late Tuesday afternoon European model is in very good agreement with the midday GFS model. The morning versions of these two models showed some differences with respect to the rainfall amounts over portions of eastern KS, MO, eastern IA, but the afternoon update of these models are in much strong agreement and are very close. Over the next 5 days there will be a large area of 2-5″/ 50-125mm rains covering 70% of northern WI, all of central and southern MN … the western half of IA … the southeast third of SD … all of central and eastern NEB … central and eastern KS … western half of MO … central and eastern OK. Lighter amounts of 1 -3″ 25-75mm over central TX … western ARK … eastern MO and western ILL. To the east most of the Deep South as well as IND… KY… TN… and OH stay rain free.
6-10 DAY – The models have reversed again here at midday with a 12z GFS model for the 6-10D now turning turn quite dry over much of the Midwest. (this morning it was fairly wet). As you can see it has large areas of the WCB and most of the Upper Plains completely dry or rainfall amounts under 0.25″/6mm. In addition most of MO and ARK as well as ILL is either mostly drier or completely dry on the 12z GFS operational model for the 6-10 day.
However, the Tuesday late afternoon European model is vastly different and shows a large area of 1-3″ /25-75mm rains from OH, PA, down into TN, KY and as far west as central and eastern NEB. As you can see is substantially wetter over IA, MO, ILL, southern IND, western TN and western KY as well as ARK.
With the operational GFS and European models not agreeing in the 6-10D… the thing to do is look at the ensembles and we can see that clearly the GFS ensemble is much wetter than the operational run over MO, ARK, ILL, KY, IA, MN and WI. This tells me that the European model solution is probably going to be correct in the 6-10 day and it will be significantly wetter than what the GFS model is showing.
11-15 DAY – Most of the models have been showing only light to moderate rains over much of the Plains and the Midwest in the 11 to 15 day but the new European model is substantially different. It brings back additional rains across much of the central and lower portions of the Midwest into TN and across much of NEB, central and eastern KS, central and eastern OK, MO and ARK.
CPC FORECAST MAPS–6-10 DAY
In the official CPC 6 to 10 day forecast RAINFALL shows Above Normal rainfall over all of the Plains into the WCB and Much Above Normal rainfall over eastern WY, COL into all of OK, TX, across all of the Deep south into the ECB as well as the Middle Atlantic and New England… Near Normal over the central Plains and WCB and Below Normal over ND, SD. Below Normal over all of the Rockies, the Plains and the WCB. In that area, there is a large area of Much Below Normal over central Plains into eastern COL, WY. Temps are Near Normal over the ECB and Above Normal from GA to Maine.
CPC FORECAST – MAPS–8-14 DAY
Above Normal precipitation over the entire Deep South as well as TX, OK, KS into eastern COL, WY and into the ECB. The Middle Atlantic into New England… Near Normal rainfall over most of the WCB… and Below Normal Upper Plains. Below Normal over all of the Midwest into the Delta and most of the Plains… and Much Below Normal over the heart of the WCB and ECB regions.
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