December Lean Hogs rallied back to the top of its recent trading range, making the high at 73.80, the low at 71.525 and settled near the high at 73.35. Hogs are basically consolidating within 38.2 % – 61.8% retracement range of the September 20th high at 78.70 to the October 20th low at 65.40. The retracement levels are the 38.2 % at 70.475, the 50% at 72.05 and the 61.8% at 73.625. The high of the band is at 74.275 and the low is at 70.625. Settlement took price above the declining 50-DMA at 73.275 and the 61.8% retracement level. The low tested the key levels at 71.85, the rising 13-DMA at 71.575 and 71.325. Cutouts and the cash market continues to struggle but, bulls seem to believe things will turn and the cash markets will strengthen from here on out. Our exports have been strong and we are into the Holiday season so hope builds. This has led to futures narrowing the spread of the futures / cash index. We are now tight to the index so if cash markets can’t gain soon and continue to flop around, we could see liquidation in the futures and price come back down, in my opinion. A continuation higher could see resistance tested at 74.25. If futures break out above resistance, we could see the 75.60 resistance level tested. A break below the 50-DMA could see support tested at 72.80 and then the 50% retracement level. Support then comes in at 13-DMA and 71.85 – 71.325.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 88.24 as of 11/10/2023.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 76.28 as of 11/09/2023.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 488,000, which is above last week’s 487,000 and last year’s 486,000.
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be on Tuesday, November 14, 2023, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
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