TUESDAY MIDDAY RADAR – Moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms have developed during the predawn hours over far northeastern portions ND …southeastern portions of SD …central MN …and northern WI.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS ENDING 0700 CDT 16 MAY – There was a widespread light to moderate rain across significant portions of Upper Plains into the northern WCB areas in the last 24 hours. Generally the rainfall amounts range from 0.25 -1.0″/ 6-25mm with 50 to 60% coverage over central NEB, most of the Dakotas, central and southern MN, all of WI and the northern third of IA. There were few areas which saw isolated 2-3″ /50-75mm amounts located over far southeastern MN … and over south central NEB into northwestern KS.
MAX TEMPS – 70s were common over eastern MT, eastern WY, all of ND, SD, western NEB, MN, WI, MI and OH … 80s over KY, TN, IN, ILL, IA, MO, ARK, LA, MS, AL, LA, east TX, most of OK, KS, eastern NEB and eastern COL… LOW 90s over western half of TX into the OK Panhandle, far sw NEB … and far eastern NEB.
1-5D = The weather models are in fairly good agreement all the next 5 days but there are some differences. As you can see from the image below the European model (RIGHT) has heavier rains over larger portions of MO … central and eastern IA and central and eastern KS and more significant rains over central TX. But in general the overall rainfall shield covers pretty much the same area. The GFS model has heavier rains with several areas getting 5-6″ /125-150mm over portions of southern MN and northwest WI, n and far eastern portions of SD into far northwest IA.
6-10DAY = there are significant differences in the models. Generally the European model (RIGHT) again has heavier rains over the heart of the Midwest stretching from OH/ PA border all the way back into central and eastern NEB. There are few gaps in the rain shield but generally the Euro shows 1-3″/ 25-75mm rains with some heavier amounts of 4-5″ /100-125mm over portions of KY and far southern IND. Notice that the GFS (LEFT) model has large areas seeing no significant rain and no rains over 0.25″/6mm over IA, eastern NEB, eastern KS, southern MO, ARK. And it does not have that 2-4″/ 50-100mm rainfall amounts over KY …OH …and southern IND.
The ensemble models are in pretty good agreement as well. The GFS is somewhat wetter over the WCB but outside of that … the rainfall amounts as well as the shape of the precipitation and which areas get hit …are pretty similar between both models. We think the ensemble mean presented here are probably going to have the best rainfall forecast.
11-15 DAY = The models continue to trend somewhat drier in the 11 to 15 day. Not completely dry but certainly not any thing close to moderate or significant rains for mid and late MAY.
WEEK 3 AND 4 = The new weekly CFS model has come out and it is quite wet and possibly even excessively wet. In week 3 which takes us into the first week of JUNE the new CFS is quite wet over the central Plains into the WCB, the lower half of the ECB and the Deep South. Temperatures are near normal. In week 4 the pattern remains quite wet as you can see with most of the central, upper Plains as well as all the Midwest seeing above normal rainfall. Temperatures do warm up a little bit however. This is strongly supported by the new European weekly model which came out Monday evening. As you can see the European weekly models show a large area of above normal rainfall covering all of the eastern Plains and much of the Midwest and the Delta region right through until the middle of JUNE
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