11/4/23
The meats were all lower today. December’23 Live Cattle were 0.800 lower today and settled at 183.875, a gain of 1.65 this week. November’23 Feeder Cattle were 2.025 lower today, and settled at 240.600, a gain of 3.7 for the week. December’23 Lean Hogs also fell 1.525 today and settled at 71.750, a gain of 1.275 for the week. Today’s high in the December’23 live cattle was 184.975, that is just above the 100-day moving average of 184.737. The cattle market broke after the Cattle on Feed Report but has bounced back well. I still feel that the Cattle market is priced too high, and I think a break in the Live Cattle and Feeder’s will come soon. Next year’s prices: June’24 Live Cattle 182.700, August’24 Feeder Cattle 261.550, August’24 Lean Hogs 95.075.
LIVE CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| DEC’23 183.875 | 190C | 0.350 | $140 |
| 195C | 0.125 | $50 | |
| 200C | 0.050 | $20 | |
| ATM 184C 2.000 | ATM STRADDLE 4.125 | EXPIRES 12/1/23 | |
| FEB’24 185.225 | 190C | 2.025 | $810 |
| 195C | 0.975 | $390 | |
| 200C | 0.475 | $190 | |
| ATM 185C 4.100 | ATM STRADDLE 7.975 | EXPIRES 2/2/24 | |
| APR’24 187.825 | 190C | 4.300 | $1,720 |
| 195C | 2.475 | $990 | |
| 200C | 1.400 | $560 | |
| ATM 188C 5.250 | ATM STRADDLE 10.675 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 |
LIVE CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| DEC’23 183.875 | 180P | 0.750 | $300 |
| 175P | 0.225 | $90 | |
| 170P | 0.100 | $40 | |
| ATM 184P 2.125 | ATM STRADDLE 4.125 | EXPIRES 12/1/23 | |
| FEB’24 185.225 | 180P | 1.975 | $790 |
| 175P | 0.925 | $370 | |
| 170P | 0.475 | $190 | |
| ATM 185P 3.875 | ATM STRADDLE 7.975 | EXPIRES 2/2/24 | |
| APR’24 187.825 | 181P | 2.700 | $1,080 |
| 170P | 0.850 | $340 | |
| 165P | 0.500 | $200 | |
| ATM 188P 5.425 | ATM STRADDLE 10.675 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 |
JUNE’24 LIVE CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 182.700 | 20% BULL MOVE | 219.240 | 218C | 0.250 |
| 182.700 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 146.160 | 148P | 0.300 |
| 182.700 | 30% BULL MOVE | 237.510 | 236C | 0.075 |
| 182.700 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 127.890 | 128P | 0.050 |
| 182.700 | 40% BULL MOVE | 255.780 | 254C | 0.025 |
| 182.700 | 40% BEAR MOVE | 109.620 | 112P | 0.025 |
FEEDER CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| NOV’23 240.600 | 242C | 2.450 | $1,225 |
| 245C | 0.375 | $187.50 | |
| 250C | 0.100 | $50 | |
| ATM 241C 1.450 | ATM STRADDLE 3.300 | EXPIRES 11/16/23 | |
| JAN’24 239.750 | 245C | 3.350 | $1,675 |
| 250C | 1.975 | $987.50 | |
| 255C | 1.175 | $587.50 | |
| ATM 240C 5.425 | ATM STRADDLE 11.100 | EXPIRES 1/25/24 | |
| MAR’24 242.350 | 250C | 4.925 | $2.462.50 |
| 260C | 2.375 | $1,187.50 | |
| 270C | 1.125 | $562.50 | |
| ATM 242C 8.275 | ATM STRADDLE 16.200 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 |
FEEDER CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| NOV’23 240.600 | 239P | 1.000 | $500 |
| 235P | 0.275 | $137.50 | |
| 233P | 0.150 | $75 | |
| ATM 241P 1.850 | ATM STRADDLE 3.300 | EXPIRES 11/16/23 | |
| JAN’24 239.750 | 235P | 3.550 | $1,775 |
| 230P | 2.125 | $1,062.50 | |
| 225P | 1.250 | $625 | |
| ATM 240P 5.675 | ATM STRADDLE 11.100 | EXPIRES 1/25/24 | |
| MAR’24 242.350 | 235P | 5.000 | $2,500 |
| 230P | 3.475 | $1,737.50 | |
| 225P | 2.350 | $1,175 | |
| ATM 242P 7.925 | ATM STRADDLE 16.200 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 |
AUGUST’24 FEEDER CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 261.550 | 20% BULL MOVE | 313.860 | 312C | 1.775 |
| 261.550 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 209.240 | 210P | 1.575 |
| 261.550 | 30% BULL MOVE | 340.015 | 340C | 0.650 |
| 261.550 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 183.085 | 184P | 0.525 |
| 261.550 | 40% BULL MOVE | 366.170 | 366C | 0.350 |
| 261.550 | 40% BEAR MOVE | 156.930 | 158P | 0.175 |
LEAN HOG CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| DEC’23 71.750 | 75C | 0.850 | $340 |
| 80C | 0.200 | $160 | |
| 85C | 0.075 | $30 | |
| ATM 72C 1.950 | ATM STRADDLE 4.150 | EXPIRES 12/14/23 | |
| FEB’24 75.475 | 80C | 1.925 | $770 |
| 85C | 0.850 | $340 | |
| 90C | 0.400 | $160 | |
| ATM 75C 4.000 | ATM STRADDLE 7.525 | EXPIRES 2/14/24 | |
| APR’24 80.725 | 85C | 3.300 | $1,320 |
| 90C | 1.850 | $740 | |
| 95C | 1.025 | $410 | |
| ATM 81C 5.000 | ATM STRADDLE 10.275 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 |
LEAN HOG PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| DEC’23 71.750 | 67P | 0.625 | $250 |
| 65P | 0.375 | $150 | |
| 60P | 0.100 | $40 | |
| ATM 72P 2.200 | ATM STRADDLE 4.150 | EXPIRES 12/14/23 | |
| FEB’24 75.475 | 70P | 1.725 | $690 |
| 65P | 0.775 | $310 | |
| 60P | 0.325 | $130 | |
| ATM 75P 3.525 | ATM STRADDLE 7.525 | EXPIRES 2/14/24 | |
| APR’24 80.725 | 75P | 2.875 | $1,150 |
| 70P | 1.600 | $640 | |
| 65P | 0.850 | $340 | |
| ATM 81P 5.275 | ATM STRADDLE 10.275 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 |
AUGUST’24 LEAN HOGS
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 95.075 | 20% BULL MOVE | 114.090 | 114C | 1.450 |
| 95.075 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 76.060 | 78P | 1.675 |
| 95.075 | 30% BULL MOVE | 123.597 | 122C | 0.725 |
| 95.075 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 66.552 | 68P | 0.575 |
| 95.075 | 40% BULL MOVE | 133.105 | 132C | 0.350 |
| 95.075 | 40% BEAR MOVE | 57.045 | 58P | 0.175 |
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive, Walsh Trading
Phone: 312-957-8079 or 800-556-9411
Email: [email protected]
Walsh Trading
53 W Jackson Suite 750
Chicago, Il 60604