Commentary
November soybeans rallied 11 cents before closing at $13.76. December soybean meal futures closed $1.60 higher at $399.2 but ended nearer the session low. USDA reported that soybean ratings lost 5%, now at 53% good to excellent, behind 57% last year and the 60 percent five-year average; soybean pod-setting and dropping leaves stand at 95 percent and 16% respectively, also slightly ahead of comparable paces. National soybean condition ratings fell by more than expected this week, led by #1 producer Illinois which lost 10 percent in the good to excellent category. The soybean crop as of these latest ratings decrease shows the worst-rated crop since 2013 and tied for the third worst of the last two decades. The 2013 crop did rebound a bit into late September but still finished around 4% below trend at 44.0 bushels per acre. I wouldn’t be if the market went bid into the September 12th crop report. Many unknowns here regarding crop size given the latest crop estimates and ratings declines. It is possible that funds may bid prices up ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE report in my view. Chart below. Key support next week is 1363. Consecutive closes below could see the market droop all the way down to the 1280-1300 level. Key resistance is 14.02 A close over and we could see a rally to 14.20 and potentially the 1440-1450 area.
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