Commentary
A nonthreatening forecast precedes the weekend, and the funds were active sellers after last week’s surprise 4 million acre cut in acres. There is a lot of skepticism here. Beans lost 4 million acres; corn gained 2 million according to USDA. There were additions to other crops like sorghum up 830K from the March report, Rice 100K higher, Barley 414K higher. The question before traders is whether the US can outyield its lack of acreage. With the government’s demand base, it could take a 54 yield to do just that. Current condition ratings do not support a 54-yield designation but there is 60 days to make or break the US soy crop with weather in my opinion. Demand for new crop beans is weak so far but not out of the ordinary. China booked no old crop beans this week but did purchase 270K of new crop. This is 6 million metric tons behind last year and 2.3 million metric tons behind 2021. The planted acres will be debated for some time until the next quarterly report in late September, but FSA data on acres will be out mid-July, so there could be some adjustments. Weak demand and agreeable weather pressured corn and beans to end the week in my view.
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