Commentary
US weather prospects pushed the soy complex around today, similar to what happened with corn futures in my opinion. The rains inserted into the ECB by the GFS midday turned the market negative but did not force a hard sell off. The rains added in the ECB were modest and then the 11-15 lost significant accumulations once indicated. A net loss for the Midwest for the 15-day outlook so far. US exports remain sluggish with shipments this week at 210K vs 370K last year. For this marketing year, inspections are running just over 1 million metric tons behind last year. Soybean shipments will likely continue to struggle through the end of the marketing year, likely erasing this surplus and start to build a small deficit resulting in a modest reduction in the export target. July Soybeans have forged a nice rally since last week’s lows, an impressive 90 cents. However, with Brazilian basis lower than the Board, do the managed funds continue to push old crop July back to $14.10, which represents a 50 percent retracement from the yearly high/low on the weekly continuous chart.
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