Cattle markets were slow today with the April cattle settling at 163.70 up 10 cents. Feeder fell a little sharper as the corn market were firmer based off of the USDA reports that came out today showing the following:
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.267 billion bu. for 2022-23; up from 1.242 billion bu. in January
Beans: 225 million bu. for 2022-23; up from 210 million bu. in January
Wheat: 568 million bu. for 2022-23; up from 567 million bu. in January
Cotton: 4.3 million bales for 2022-23; up from 4.2 million bales in January
Global carryover
Corn: 295.28 MMT for 2022-23; down from 296.42 MMT in January
— compares with 306.28 MMT in 2021-22
Beans: 102.03 MMT for 2022-23; down from 103.52 MMT in January
— compares with 98.83 MMT in 2021-22
Wheat: 269.34 MMT for 2022-23; up from 268.39 MMT in January
— compares with 276.70 MMT in 2021-22
Cotton: 89.08 million bales for 2022-23; down from 89.93 million bales in January
— compares with 85.24 million bales in 2021-22
I am still of the opinion that cattle prices are going to move higher going further into the year. As further evidence of continued contraction, beef replacement heifers are down about 6% from a year ago, compared to an average pre-report estimate of 3% lower, while dairy replacement heifers and other heifers are down 2% and 3%, respectively. Overall, the inventory of all heifers weighing 500 pounds or more is down about 4%, compared to expectations for just a 2% decline. Steers and bulls weighing 500+ pounds are down 3% and 4% respectively, while the number of calves under 500 pounds is down about 3%. With all of these factors being considered, this is adding up to be on track for what we saw 8 years ago in the cattle markets of Q4 2014.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Peter McGinn
Account Executive
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312-985-0931
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