Walsh Trading Daily Insights
Commentary
December Lean Hogs continued its lack luster trading. The Wednesday range couldn’t even make it out of the Tuesday range, forming an inside candlestick. The high was at 86.175 and the low was at 84.80. It settled higher at 85.575. Price remains trapped between the flattening 21-DMA now at 85.825 and the declining 50-DMA now at 84.35. Settlement was above the key level at 85.325. The cash market is drifting lower and that is weighing down the futures market. Cash is languishing despite the shortage of heavier turkeys heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. It is believed consumers will purchase more hams to make up for the shortfall of turkeys but, it hasn’t helped drive aggressive pricing for pork (hams) and no surge in bids to buy hogs to get more hams. Disappointing!! Pork exports are out before the Thursday open and with a declining US dollar, it will be imperative to see exports rise after last week’s disappointing sales in my opinion. A breakdown below the 50-DMA could see price test support at 83.325. Support the comes in at 81.70. If price can overtake the 21-DMA, we could see price test resistance at 87.10. Resistance then comes in at 88.325.
The Pork Cutout Index ticked higher and is at 96.00 as of 11/15/2022.
The Lean Hog Index down ticked and is at 88.53 as of 11/14/2022.
Estimated Slaughter for Wednesday is 493,000 which is above last week’s 476,000 and last year’s 480,000. Tuesday’s slaughter was revised higher to 495,000. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 1,473,000, which is above last week’s 1,461,000 and last year’s 1,446,000.
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursdays (except holiday weeks) and our next webinar will be on Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
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