Live cattle futures bounced today as feeders sharply declined on breaking news of Polish missile strikes from the Russians sent the grain markets higher. February live cattle settled at 153.05, a change of .50 cents higher on the day while the March feeders declined $1.975, settling below $180 for the first time since mid-October. The volume for today’s trade in feeder cattle was the most the market had seen since November 2nd and I believe we could see some follow through in the market for the remainder of the week. The USDA cattle on feed report comes out on Friday and there is speculation that it will be a bullish report, showing that fed cattle supplies declined below a year ago and below the 5-year average.
Fundamentally, activity in the country is very quiet on the heels of last week’s 102k head negotiated trade at a higher average. Next week contains a holiday meaning packer inventory need are less. So far this week bids are scarce to mostly non-existent.
Choice boxed beef values printed higher this morning after a small break in price, this morning’s quote at $259.37, up $1.39. There has rarely been a holiday rib rally that faltered prior to the first 10 days of December so 2-3 weeks remain with solid, seasonal upside potential on that key item.
Retail beef prices on the other hand will end 2023 record high as retailers have sustained high prices in order to recoup losses after being gouged in 2021. Price below is through October 2022.
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Peter McGinn
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Walsh Trading, Inc.
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