SOY
The beans fall again based on the weather. The markets will liquidate as far as the technical’s will take them. Having said that. There still remains enough growing that the market will need to respect the fact that damage, especially in beans can occur. The weather at present looks beneficial overall. The dry areas have diminished. The temperatures are of concern however and the month of August will prove crucial to production. The macro in my opinion remains down. However, the market can rally sharply if the rains are diminished. Take caution.
MEAL/OIL The oilshare at approx 40%. The global picture is weighing on the soy oil. The palm stocks in Indonesia have put the palm at a deep discount. Demand is starting to show. This may take a bit more time to clean up. In addition the crude oil weakness is also a bearish factor on the day.
CORN
The corn was under pressure due to the weather. This has been the case all week. The export sales are lower as well – another factor to consider. The bear side now is on the table. While I do believe the macro is bearish and I have suggested that for a bit. I also think the near term has some upside risk if the weather turns out a bit different. The south and the west are hot and there are dry spots. The corn this year has a bit of a spread out window for pollination. Look for any sharp rallies if they occur as selling opportunities.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449
312-208-8836
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