Good morning, as of this writing Wheat is mixed in trading this morning. Talks to resume Ukraine grain exports through the Black Sea are not where I feel they need to be yet but are progressing. All be it on light volume the Wheat market has trended higher this week on what I feel are worries that Ukraine won’t be able to export Wheat. The war in Ukraine drags on and is moving at a slow pace. I am looking for Russia to slowly try to continue to push west and increase it’s stronghold. I am also waiting for the Fed to meet next week to see what they are going to do with interest rates and how that is going to affect inflation. Earlier this week I saw the crop conditions for Wheat improve on percent to 71 good/excellent up from 70 percent the week before. I feel Wheat is very susceptible to downside pressure right now and any rally is met with heavy pressure. If I retrace to the July 11th highs I look for selling to enter the market. Weekly exports for Wheat came out this morning and were in line with expectations for the week so look for that not to be a factor in the market. I feel like the market wants to trade in a range for a while until we get some concrete weather forecasts and/or resolution to what is happening in the Ukraine. I feel you should sell rallys.
Jerry Hanselman
Senior Account Executive
Walsh Trading, Inc,
jhanselman@walshtrading.com
630-248-7576
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