COMMENTARY:
SOY
BEANS – The soy saw a two sided trade today with the export sales leading some early buying . Both the Chinese and México were buyers . China 199 t , Mexico 125 t . The beans in my opinion have little reason to exhibit strength at present . The Brazilian crop is making rapid planting progress . The private estimates are as high as 144 – 145 mmt , a record . This if realized will swell global numbers and carry to near record levels . The export situation based on Chinese demand will be important . The US will again lose market share . The reality here in my opinion is we are moving to a price taker situation .
MEAL – The meal was steady all day . The meal as I have mentioned is suffering from the oil share strength . In addition over all contraction in meal demand while crush was running at or near record amounts . These trends are slowly changing . I do not see a meal bull market here . rather a market that may find its footing and start to gain some market share back in the oil share . There needs to be a pick up in demand to get the market excited . Do not press the down side at present in my opinion .
BEAN OIL – The bean oil came under some selling pressure today . The veg oil market in my opinion is at a critical phase . The bean oil stocks domestically are up a bit . The global oils are starting to show more ample supplies . Canada excluded . This is all important . The market however is still watching the crude which remains at high levels . The problem here remains with the supply . I do not know how this is rectified . The oil share in my opinion is now in the high end of a range . As always quantify a risk . However , the bean oil in my opinion may be close to a top again .
Quantify your risk.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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