Perspective Commodity Snapshot Template
Walsh Trading Daily Insights
Commentary
August Lean Hogs opened higher, made the session low at 104.675 and rallied to the session high at 106.275. The trading range was between 104.30 support and 106.85 resistance. It consolidated the rest of the session and it settled at 105.65. Settlement was at the rising 100 DMA at 105.64. If price fails at settlement price, a re-test of support at 104.30 is possible. Support then comes in at 101.975, 100.075 and then 98.475. If price can hold settlement, a re-test resistance at 106.85 is possible. Resistance then comes in at 107.925. There are gaps above and below the market. Above the market has a gap from the June 21st high at 107.20 and the low from June 18 at 108.50. Below the market are gaps from the July 12th high at 104.375 to the July 13 low at 104.475 and from the July 9th high at 101.975 to the July 12th low at 102.10.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 118.36 as of 7/15/2021.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 111.34 as of 7/14/2021.
Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 427,000, which is below last week’s 463,000 and last year’s 461,000. Thursday’s slaughter was revised lower to 461,000. Saturday’s slaughter is expected to be 12,000, which is below last week’s 55,000 and last year’s 198,000. The weekly estimated total is expected to be 2,280,000, which is above last week’s holiday slaughter of 1,923,000 and below last year’s 2,517,000.
August Feeder Cattle opened lower, traded to the session high at 157.525 and then broke down the rest of the session, making the low at 155.50 and settling nearby at 155.625. The breakdown took price below support at 156.075. A breakdown below settlement could see price re-test support at 155.275. Support then comes in at 154.25 and then 153.50. If feeders can rise above resistance at 156.075, a re-test of resistance at the 157.30 – 157.90 zone is possible. Resistance then comes in at 160.625 and then 162.00.
The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 151.39 as of 7/15/2021.
August Live Cattle opened higher, challenged resistance at 122.825 as it rallied to the session high at 122.60 and failed, breaking down to the session low at 121.175 and settling nearby at 121.25. The breakdown took price below the key level at 121.90 and puts support at 120.80 in traders’ cross hairs. A breakdown from settlement could see price re-test support at 120.80 and then possibly work its way down to support at 119.375. If price can overtake the 121.90 resistance level, a re-test of resistance at 122.825 is possible. Resistance then comes in at 124.30.
Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts declined 1.93 to 267.94 and select decreased 0.69 to 251.79. The choice/ select spread widened to 16.15 and the load count was 143.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 118,000, which is below last week’s 120,000 and above last year’s 115,000. Saturday’s slaughter is expected to be 56,000, which is below last week’s 88,000 and last year’s 64,000. The weekly estimated total is expected to be 653,000, which is above last week’s holiday slaughter of 575,000 and last year’s 646,000.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday in Nebraska negotiated cash trading has been limited on light demand. In the Western Cornbelt negotiated cash trading has been mostly inactive on light demand. Not enough purchases in either region for a market trend. In the Southern Plains negotiated cash trading has been at a standstill. Tuesday was the last market in the Southern Plains with live purchases at mostly 120.00. In Nebraska Wednesday was the last live purchase market at 123.00. In the Western Cornbelt Wednesday was the last live purchase market from 125.00-125.50. Last week in both Nebraska and Western Cornbelt dressed purchases traded from 196.00-202.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades this week for live cattle at 117.00 – 126.00 and 191.00 – 202.00 for dressed trades (so far).
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursdays (except holiday weeks) and our next webinar will be on Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 2:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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