COMMENTARY: Meal gained as unwinding long bean oil short meal is in force. The oil share has broken approx 4% in the last week. The weather has moderated. The exports have slowed. The crush pace may very well be over stated. The market will eye the acreage at month end for help with the direction. As mentioned yesterday, the weather for beans is premature. The question now is what could be a driver in the soy. The bean oil typically doesn’t carry beans higher. I am not looking at meal as a bull driver. However, unwinding may keep a bid temporarily. The South American will dominate the export arena for some time now. This will remain true without any major issues arising. The global vegoil market is starting to ease with the palm starting to build stocks. In addition, talk of easing mandates for bio has the market a bit ill at ease. This break may stop that recent talk. The risk is clearly elevated. Quantify all risk.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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