AG
SOY
The beans and products were all higher. The crop conditions yesterday were lower than the market had anticipated. The gd to ex was rated at 67%. This is concerning to the early stages of the market. To note the planting is well ahead of schedule. The vegoil continues to be the leader. The meal did post a positive close. It is possible that if the beans rally into month end, the meal will follow higher. It is important to note that the cash meal at present is not really following the soy higher. This market is not only about fundamentals. However, the soyoil is the leader due to the overall fundamental outlook.
CORN
The corn was strong both overnight and during the session. The ratings yesterday showed an expected decline. The gd to excellent of 72% was down more than anticipated and signals what may be to come next week with the current forecast. The question going forward will be if the weather pattern shifts and adds a bit of rain. As mentioned yesterday the july sep corn spreads are giving in. They have reached my near term target of 51. This may be a near term bottom. A rally in my opinion in the spreads would be a sales opportunity. The new crop corn is well supported, but retreated off tech resistance on the high. The hope is that we rally into month end approaching the USDA acreage estimate. It is my thought that the acreage could be larger than anticipated by the market given prices. These remain my best thoughts and risk should be quantified.
WEATHER
The northern areas, especially North Dakota and the southern growing regions of Canada remain stressed. This is important given the amount of bean acres at risk this year. Eastern areas received moderate rain fall yesterday and the past 24. Central Ill some rain, NO Indiana, and parts of Ohio received rain. Nebraska and Minn are in need. The question for next week is will the high pressure ridge shift west, if so this could bring much needed moisture. Remains to be seen. Risk is high.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449
312-208-8836
jwalsh@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.