The soy experienced a two sided choppy trade overall. The market is dealing with the time of year, the South American production, as well as the Chinese decline in US bean purchases. The fact remains at present that the US balance sheet remains tight. The question now is will the carry be ample through the summer. Will the weather remain favorable. Finally, how many bean acres will actually be planted. These questions have a ways to go to be answered. The answer(s) however may lie in the respected product values. The meal has been the weakest part of the crush. It is my thought this should continue. The global vegoil prices remain elevated, but are starting in some cases to cut into demand. The problem remains however, that the Malaysian palm production remains under expectation due to the inability to collect the palm fruit. If the weather experiences any issues then the global vegoil prices could heat up again. In the near term perhaps they just remain stronger on a relative basis, without taking out recent highs. The end result is an elevated market where oil share remains the key. A weather problem could send vegoil and beans higher. Let’s see what happens. As always quantify the risk.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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