Commentary:
SOY: The soy was quiet today. The bulls have been in control for the past week based on some weather concerns. The Pro Farmer crop tour is running now. The current schedule in Indiana and parts of Nebraska have shown above average yield potential. This has the market stalled for a minute. There are areas coming up that may well show some declining potential. This could give the market a bit more upside potential. It has been my contention that this rally could be seen as a further hedging opportunity. My thought has been the beans have not been hurt and the yield will come in at or above the current USDA.
CORN: The corn is stalling a bit here. The fundamentals hinge on the last bout of weather. In addition the current weather scenario. There are areas that are a bit dry. It is my thought that there will be real losses with damaged corn that can not be picked up. This could put the carry, in my opinion, at or below the 2 billion bu mark. In addition the Chinese appetite for corn looks to be real. The recent flooding could add to these needs. It is my thought that the corn has the most long term potential. The market has not traded that way for some time. As always a quantified risk approach is required.
Trade Suggestion(s)
NA today
Risk/Reward
Futures-
Options –
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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