Commentary:
The soy was under pressure today . The weather remains very beneficial over all. The exports while up from recent history lack the fire power to get anyone excited. The Chinese spent a lot of their recent needs on Brazil. This puts Brazil in a sold out situation. It also makes one think last years crops were larger than reported. Which in my opinion has merit. The question for beans remains, what will acres come in at. Will the weather remain near ideal? The flat price for beans may continue to struggle. The products are the next question. Will the crush pace remain stout. The oil share has made some gains. I am putting this puzzle together. It seems to me for oil to have a real gain, the crush will need to slow. Is the meal market signaling the need for this? The next week or two are a potential tell tale. The stocks report is on line next week.
The corn has shown weakness for the same reasons as beans. It does seem logical that $3.00 corn won’t promote feed grain acres. The stocks report next week may offer insights to a change. This remains to be seen. The acreage estimate to me is overstated. The end result for corn unfortunately is that I continue to look for changes that could impact the balance sheet in a more friendly way. This remains to be seen as well. So I have been incorrect. That is why I suggest having a quantified risk at all times. Let’s see what next week holds.
Trade Suggestion(s)
NA today
Risk/Reward
Futures-
Options –
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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