Live Cattle
On Thursday June 14, 2018 the August Live Cattle contract opened at 103.50, traded to the high at 103.825 and then fought its way lower, grinding down to the session low at 101.325 and settling nearby at 101.875. The settlement is just above the 101.625 support level. This will be the key for trade on Friday, in my opinion. A rally above settlement could test resistance at 103.00 and then 104.20. Breaking below the 101.625 support level could see a break down to the 100.125 support level. Support then comes in at 99.375. Negotiated cash trade on Thursday was limited on light demand in most major feeding regions. Thursday afternoon boxed beef cutout values were weak to lower on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings. Choice was down 1.82 at 222.08 with Select down 0.33 to close at 201.97 on 125 loads. The choice/ select spread narrowed to 20.11. The hide and offal value from typical fed cattle for today was estimated at 9.46 per cwt live, up 0.05 from Wednesday’s value. The estimated cattle slaughter for Thursday was reported at 116,000, last week 121,000 and a year ago 119,000.
Feeder Cattle
The August Feeder Cattle contract opened at 145.35, traded to its high at 145.70 then pounded the 144.20 support level until it gave way and price fell, trading to the session low at 143.25. This is just below support at 143.50. It settled just above support at 143.675. Trading above settlement could test resistance 144.20, 145.05 and aggressive short covering could see 146.20 revisited. Trading below 143.50 could see futures pounded down to 142.425 and then 140.775.
Lean Hogs
The July Lean Hogs contract opened at 82.80 traded to the session high at 83.175 and broke down, taking out the Thursday low (81.75) and trading to 81.25. It settled at 81.625.A recovery from settlement could see resistance at 82.65 tested and then the Wednesday high at 83.225. A failure from settlement could see support at 80.30 revisited. Support then comes in at 79.775 and then 78.425.
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Friday, June 154th at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.* *
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
www.walshtrading.com
RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING. THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT. WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.