Oil has been strong despite bearish supply headlines. Larger inventories off set by record US exports. Positive tone with trade war talks is off set today by Trump’s Tweet “OPEC should relax and take it easy” pressuring price on the open today. Oil prices were supported last week after Mexican National Oil CO. reported lowest ever production. Lower rig counts …
AG TIME – I don’t think so
The week behind us as far as the AG markets go. The dispute and trade war will continue for a bit longer with President Trump saying progress has been made. There will be no escalation of Tariffs. This is all a positive. The Ag Outlook is releasing numbers. The expectation for the Bean acres is a reduction of 4 million …
Gold
Is the flight to safety trade back? Or was Tuesday’s explosion to the upside a one day event? After Yesterday’s sell off giving back all of Tuesdays move the skew flipped to the put side slightly. With the current volatility in Gold it is anyone’s guess. However this is a great chance for premium sellers. Options price in a 25$ …
The Growing Season Looms!
According to the rules stipulated by the CME for variable storage rates we should be looking at the reduction of a penny a month in the storage rate for wheat. This suggests that the cash market for milling quality wheat is a better sale than delivering against the March futures. Yet, not all the stocks in deliverable channels are …
Livestock Report
April Lean Hogs consolidated Wednesday’s decline today as it traded within its range. Can you imagine that! A limit up move being called consolidation. The volatility in Hogs has been impressive the past few sessions and today’s rally was no exception! It opened (54.40) well above yesterday’s settlement (52.975), tested the key level at 53.80 (session low at 53.725) and …
AG TIME – Is the Turn Here?
The projections are starting to flow from the USDA conference. The estimate is for a 4 million acre decrease. I don’t see it. A major university AG department just published a paper stating that the price relationship between beans and corn do not warrant an acreage shift of any quantity. My sentiments. Time will tell. I believe less than half …
Copper Option Strategy
Coppers reaction to the announcement of tariffs on imported goods into the US hit the metal hard, breaking down from the July 2018 high of 3.3815 to the August 2018 low of 2.7375. As the US China and EU sort out trade issues and there is more clarity on tariffs Copper can potentially rally to 3.00, in my opinion. Consider …
Livestock Report
April Lean Hogs continued its collapse today nearly going down limit on expanded limits. It fell 4.275 out of the 4.5 allowed move. Wow!! The collapse took out the 53.80 support level and dipped below trendline support at 52.55 making the low at 52.25. It settled above the trendline at 52.975. Support for Thursday comes in at the trendline at …
Grain Spreads:House of Pain
Tuesday/Wednesday update this week so far shows wheat having no friends while corn has found willing sellers on rallies. Soybeans and Soymeal have hung in there, testing yearly 2019 lows but recovering into the close. A few weeks back I posited playing strangles into the Feb 8th crop report looking for bigger moves ahead of the USDA and a US …
AG TIME CORNS TURN
I was looking at the charts today and reading a few articles. It is true the markets have been in broad ranges for quit some time. The soy to me has traded on borrowed time. The market has been held up and bounces off of support (seemingly always) based on fund desires and a hope that something bullish is out …