The markets were very interesting to me today. The question is – will there be follow through next week? Many thoughts here. First, there was a new case of African swine fever found in China. This was in a new province. The key aspect to me here is not the number of animals, but the fact it is spreading great …
Wheat/Washington/Weather
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices. It is a big day for wheat number crunchers next Friday, September 28 …
AG TIME – A Rally Opportunity
Apparently the funds are buying beans because they are cheap? Whatever that means. As I have said, a nice rally in beans should be welcomed. The beans at levels on the board if, and I say if, they were hedged months ago, equate to a tidy profit with the one time govt payment (1.65 reported). This rally in my opinion …
Harvest Momentum
Some forecasters are calling for a frost next weekend in the northern Midwest which, if occurs, is a few days ahead of normal……………………………………Some farmers might welcome the frost as weeds will become less of a nuisance with harvest…………………………………………………..The National Weather Service is also calling for wetter than normal conditions to prevail which might impede harvest activity yet, lessen the probability …
Important Wheat Dates
Looking ahead the wheat market gets to decipher the stocks report on September 28 and then the Supply/Demand estimates in October, November and December and then the mother of all reports in January 2019 when we’ll get the final production figures, supply/demand, stocks in-all-positions as of December 1, 2018 and winter wheat seeding……………………………………………. We’ll also work through the …
AG TIME – Move The Calendar Up
The soy is getting a bounce today. There are a couple reasons this could be transpiring. There may be some bottom picking. The market has broken a lot. Another scenario could be a thought that the China US relations could find some common ground. Food for thought. Let’s look at some real life scenarios playing out. The Brazilian planting is …
Livestock Report – Lean Hogs
The October Lean Hogs contract gap opened higher and traded up limit before a slight pullback took price lower and it settled up 2.725 at 59.175. The December contract neared its limit price and settled up 2.60 at 57.975. The December contract is now the lead contract and will be the focus for traders going forward. The shutdown of processing …
Grain Spreads: Wheat Gains on Corn
The USDA data released last week unexpectedly showed higher global ending stocks than the market was expecting for wheat. To me it was a report day surprise which forced some managed money longs to liquidate on report day and the session after. Yearly fifty percent retracements took Dec 18 KC wheat below 5.04 and Dec Chicago wheat under 5.01. We …
AG TIME – Numbers Piling Up
The soy is under pressure. The Trump administration is adding 200 billion worth of tariffs. China will retaliate. This certainly is an issue. however, the biggest issue in my opinion is the overproduction. The global production continues to expand. Given the proposed demand, it will become very difficult to draw these stocks down. I find it perplexing and almost disingenuous …
Grinding
The harvest grind in corn and beans is upon us and might be fast and furious or slow and sputtering depending upon what Mother Nature decides…………………………… Last night’s progress reports revealed that corn and bean harvest is a little ahead of normal and winter wheat seeding just slightly behind the 5 year average…………………………………………………. I sense that no one wants to …