The soy eased today. Are the highs in? The report tomorrow will be important in my opinion. It is my belief the yield could come in approx 50.5 bu. That would potentially add 220 million bu to the carry. There are so many scenarios that can play out at present. The end game here is that the carry overs are …
Grain Spreads: Pre Report Positioning
Yesterday morning saw Unknown destinations with a new crop purchase of soybeans for 18/19 delivery for 145 K metric tons. Unknown destinations are spelled C-H-I-N-A which has been the assumption for some time regarding corn and bean exports for future shipment to “Unknown”. We have seen China step their toe in the water the last three weeks following this massive …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle On Wednesday August 8, 2018 the October Live Cattle contract continued to consolidate, trading down to 110.05 and then rallying all the way up past the 110.80 resistance level to the high at 111.10. Wow! It settled at 111.00. If settlement holds, price could test the 112.35 resistance level. Resistance then comes in at 113.90. A failure from …
AG TIME – Awaiting the Report Friday
The beans were up led by meal. The talk du jour was the Chinese prices are higher over concern about a lack of supply. A couple perceptions that I am working through. The Chinese bean imports in July are less than anticipated. Fact, they are trailing last year this time by 2mmt. Demand gone is gone forever. It goes to …
Olive Line Hits
All my opinions as usual below. So we are in week 4 off my Olive line buy levels in grains and deferred livestock contracts that to me tested souls but now are up and running higher. Most of the bullish factors are still in place in my view. Bad US Hard wheat crop and potential global supply demand decrease. A …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle On Tuesday August 7, 2018 the October Live Cattle contract broke down below the 110.80 support level, trading to the low at 110.10. A bounce took price above support and it settled above it at 110.925. If support holds, price could test the 112.35 resistance level. Resistance then comes in at 113.90. A failure from 110.80 could challenge …
AG TIME – Macro Thoughts
The markets are in a figure it out mode before the report on Friday. A couple comments regarding my long term perception as it relates to the macro set up. There is no question that China has been the largest story with respect to demand over the last decade. The growth has been unprecedented. I believe it is important to …
AG TIME – Do we Have Separation?
The soy complex under pressure. The rhetoric will have us believe it is due to the tariff situation. Perhaps. However, there is much to consider. The global soy production is going up. The demand is waning. The title do we have separation refers to the bean corn relationship. Perhaps a sea change. It is my belief the global shift has …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle On Monday August 6, 2018 the October Live Cattle contract matched the Friday high at 112.15 and sagged. It made the low at 111.225 and settled at 111.55. It couldn’t trade above resistance at 112.35 and couldn’t trade below support at 110.80. A breakout above 112.35 could lead to a test of resistance at 113.90. Resistance then comes …
Grain Spreads: Wheat Rally
Wheat has rallied at the expense of corn and beans as crop troubles globally have funds reentering the market on dips. Non-commercial and Non-reportable traders are long over 51 K contracts in Chicago while these same traders are long 46 K of KC wheat, data from the COT showed as of July 31st. Chicago wheat over corn settled basis Dec …