SOYBEANS–
Soybeans rallying at the start of the day but pulled back as the day went on. Although soybeans failed to keep their gains they did close positive in the march contract. As of today, the March-May spread is at 49.89% of full carry, while the May-July spread is at 38.7% of full carry. The March-May spread was 43.1% on January 23rd, and the May-July spread was 47.5%. There’s still a case to be made for soybeans trading higher from here. Soybeans don’t like to stay 1100 long historically, implying a move up to 1200 or back down to 1000. The initial move higher on Wednesday was the highest volume for soybeans in 10 years, and soybeans are trading above the 10, 20, and 50-day moving averages. Funds are long 28k contracts after adding 11.5k contracts, shown on today’s COT report. Fundamentally the move higher seems overdone, however it’s hard to ignore the volume and strong charts on daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes.
March Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1115 (+3), high of 1137, low of 1102. May ’26 Soybeans (ZSK26) settled at 1128 (+2), high of 1149, low of 1115. Cash price is at 1086 (+21)
March Bean Meal (ZMH26) settled at 303.6 (+0.4) high of 309.4, low of 299.6
March Bean Oil (ZLH26)) settled at 55.33 (-0.32) high of 56.14, low of 54.95
Meal to Oil ratio (51.325% Meal – 48.675% Oil)
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1089) 5-day, (1067) 20-day, (1079) 50-day, (1083) 100-day, (1070) 200-day
ZSHK6 Moving Averages – (1101) 5-day, (1079) 20-day, (1091) 50-day, (1095) 100-day, (1081) 200-day
ZMH26 Moving Averages – (297.9) 5-day, (295.4) 20-day, (303.0) 50-day, (303.4) 100-day, (302.7) 200-day
ZLH26 Moving Averages – (54.87) 5-day, (53.33) 20-day, (51.55) 50-day, (51.41) 100-day, (51.75) 200-day
CORN –
March ’26 Corn settled at 430 (-4) (ZCH26) high of 436, low of 428. May ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 438 (-4). Cash price is 434 (+5)
Corn was down slightly in the overnight session and continued lower during today’s session. Corn wasn’t able to close higher, even with the momentum in beans. Corn held support at 430 in the March contract today. There are more chances of rain in the forecast for Argentina, which should help improve soil conditions. Argentina’s production was lowered from 58 to 57 mmt, compared to 49 mmt last year. The next WASDE report is scheduled for Wednesday.
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (429) 5-day, (427) 20-day, (437) 50-day, (437) 100-day, (441) 200-day
ZCK26 Moving Averages – (437) 5-day, (435) 20-day, (445) 50-day, (447) 100-day, (450) 200-day
WHEAT –
March Chicago Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 529 (-5), with a high of 539, low of 527. May ‘26 Wheat (ZWK26) settled at 539 (-5). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 529 (+8). March KC Wheat (KEH5) settled at 531 (-7).
Wheat had a similar move to corn today, unable to keep up with soybeans. Today’s report showed funds closing some of their short position for the second week in a row. Funds are short 81k contracts, compared to 100k short 2 weeks ago. Wheat growing areas in the US are still largely dry, but there are chances for rain in the extended forecast. Wheat exports have been solid at 89.1% of the USDA forecast, compared to the 5-year average at 82.1%.
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (529) 5-day, (522) 20-day, (522) 50-day, (530) 100-day, (553) 200-day
ZWK26 Moving Averages – (538) 5-day, (532) 20-day, (532) 50-day, (540) 100-day, (563) 200-day
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Hans Schmit
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hschmit@walshtrading.com
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