SOYBEANS–
The WASDE report came out very bearish for soybeans today. Yield was left unchanged from December at 53 bpa, but production was raised to 4,262 mb from 4,253 mb. Ending stocks were estimated at 350 mb, at a 60 mb increase from December. The export estimate was also reduced from 1,635 mb to 1,575. We’ll see if soybeans can make up some of the losses the rest of the week. If not, soybeans may work their way closer to 1000.
March Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1049 (-13), high of 1071, low of 1043. May ’26 Soybeans (ZSK26) settled at 1061 (-12), high of 1083, low of 1056. Cash price is at 1029 (+1)
March Bean Meal (ZMH26) settled at 298.3 (-5.4) high of 303.9, low of 297.2
March Bean Oil (ZLH26)) settled at 50.27 (+0.58) high of 50.89, low of 49.80
Meal to Oil ratio (54.275% Meal – 45.725% Oil)
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1059) 5-day, (1064) 20-day, (1104) 50-day, (1084) 100-day, (1067) 200-day
ZSHK6 Moving Averages – (1071) 5-day, (1075) 20-day, (1115) 50-day, (1096) 100-day, (1078) 200-day
ZMH26 Moving Averages – (302.1) 5-day, (302.8) 20-day, (314.1) 50-day, (303.8) 100-day, (304.0) 200-day
ZLH26 Moving Averages – (49.62) 5-day, (49.34) 20-day, (50.62) 50-day, (51.28) 100-day, (51.12) 200-day
CORN –
March ’26 Corn settled at 421 (-24) (ZCH26) high of 448, low of 420. May ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 430 (-23). Cash price is 447 (-0.25)
Corn also traded way lower on the day after bearish report numbers. There was lots of talk since September about lower corn yield estimates from the USDA. The USDA ended up raising the yield estimate to 186.5 bpa from 186 bpa previously. Production was also increased from 16,752 bb in December to 17,021 bb. Ending stocks were 2,227, compared to 2,029 on the December report. Exports were unchanged and beginning stocks were revised higher. I don’t think many people were anticipating such a bearish report from the USDA. Corn may struggle to come back from here with the broken chart.
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (440) 5-day, (442) 20-day, (444) 50-day, (440) 100-day, (444) 200-day
ZCK26 Moving Averages – (448) 5-day, (450) 20-day, (451) 50-day, (449) 100-day, (453) 200-day
WHEAT –
March Chicago Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 511 (-6), with a high of 528, low of 507. May ‘26 Wheat (ZWK26) settled at 522 (-6). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 509 (-3). March KC Wheat (KEH5) settled at 526 (-3).
The January WASDE report was also bearish for wheat, but the break was not as extreme as the other grains. Yield and production were kept unchanged. Exports for domestic wheat were lowered to 2,033 mb. Ending stocks showed 926 mb, compared to 901 mb in December. Wheat may be seeing some support from dry weather in the Plains and extreme cold in parts of Ukraine/Russia. Wheat prices were up 7 in the overnight session last night. Managed money still holds a sizable short position, over 100k contracts short.
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (515) 5-day, (514) 20-day, (532) 50-day, (533) 100-day, (560) 200-day
ZWK26 Moving Averages – (526) 5-day, (524) 20-day, (542) 50-day, (544) 100-day, (571) 200-day
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