Soybeans–
Soybeans moved lower today following the rally yesterday. It seems likely that China will come through on their 12 mmt export commitment now, after making some larger purchases this week. China has committed to buying 25 mmt for 2026. Today’s weekly export sales report showed 877k mt in soybean purchases, for the week ending January 1st. The top buyer last week was China, followed by Egypt and Indonesia. The first WASDE report of the year is scheduled for Monday. Pre-report estimates show analysts expecting an increase in ending stocks to 294 mb, from 290 mb in December. ANEC is predicting Brazil will see a 10 mmt drop in export sales to China in 2026 because of China’s US purchases. 1070 is a strong level of resistance for soybeans, while 1060 is the current support.
March Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1061 (-5), high of 1067, low of 1060. May ’26 Soybeans (ZSK26) settled at 1073 (-5), high of 1079, low of 1072. Cash price is at 1034 (+13)
March Bean Meal (ZMH26) settled at 303.6 (-1.8) high of 306.9, low of 303.1
March Bean Oil (ZLH26)) settled at 49.45 (+0.14) high of 49.61, low of 48.99
Meal to Oil ratio (55.125% Meal – 44.875% Oil)
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1058) 5-day, (1068) 20-day, (1106) 50-day, (1085) 100-day, (1067) 200-day
ZSHK6 Moving Averages – (1070) 5-day, (1080) 20-day, (1117) 50-day, (1096) 100-day, (1077) 200-day
ZMH26 Moving Averages – (300.9) 5-day, (303.4) 20-day, (314.7) 50-day, (303.9) 100-day, (304.1) 200-day
ZLH26 Moving Averages – (49.47) 5-day, (49.49) 20-day, (50.67) 50-day, (51.34) 100-day, (51.06) 200-day
CORN –
March ’26 Corn settled at 446 (-0.75) (ZCH26) high of 448, low of 445. May ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 454 (unchanged). Cash price is 448 (+2)
Corn is still trading in a range between 435 and 450. 450 is proving to be a strong level of resistance, as the market waits for Monday’s WASDE report numbers. There has been lots of discussion throughout the year that the USDA is too high on the yield, after keeping the yield estimate close to unchanged since September. It’s possible that the USDA will stick with the trend of keeping the yield close to unchanged. The pre-report estimates from Bloomberg show analysts estimating yield at 184 bpa, down from 186 bpa previously. The estimate for ending stocks is also lower at 1.986 bb, compared to 2.029 bb in December. The estimate for quarterly stocks is 12.981 bb, compared to 12.075 bb last year. Corn exports were 389k mt, for the week ending January 1.
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (443) 5-day, (443) 20-day, (444) 50-day, (440) 100-day, (445) 200-day
ZCK26 Moving Averages – (451) 5-day, (451) 20-day, (452) 50-day, (448) 100-day, (454) 200-day
WHEAT –
March Chicago Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 518 (unchanged), with a high of 522, low of 515. May ‘26 Wheat (ZWK26) settled at 529 (+1). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 513 (+7). March KC Wheat (KEH5) settled at 530 (-1).
Wheat was 2 1/2 cent in the overnight session, but failed to make new highs after the rally yesterday. The plains could use some additional moisture, and rain is in the forecast. Analysts are predicting a somewhat bullish report for wheat. Estimates from Bloomberg have ending stocks down 5 mb from December to 896 mb. Winter wheat seeding is also expected to lower at 32.4 ma from 33.2 ma, previously. However, Quarterly stocks are estimated higher at 1.637 bb, from 1.573 bb last year. Export pace for domestic wheat has been strong, above the 5-year average. Today’s report showed exports for last week at 109k mt.
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (513) 5-day, (515) 20-day, (533) 50-day, (534) 100-day, (561) 200-day
ZWK26 Moving Averages – (524) 5-day, (526) 20-day, (543) 50-day, (544) 100-day, (572) 200-day
If you’re ready to start trading, click the link below to open an account with Walsh Trading, Inc.
Hans Schmit
Broker, Pure Hedge Division
312-765-7311
hschmit@walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.