April 25, 2025
By John S. Simpson Jr., Senior Market Strategist – Walsh Trading
🐂 Live Cattle (LEM25) – New Highs Met with Profit-Taking, Eyes Still on Higher Ground
The June live cattle contract (LEM25) has surged to fresh highs, continuing the strong uptrend initiated earlier this month. In my opinion, this market has shown impressive resilience since our long entry at $198.11 on April 14. Price action suggests some initial profit-taking around the $208.50–$209.00 zone, which was anticipated.
As of this morning, I’m watching closely for a retracement to potential re-entry levels at $206.20 and $203.60. Should this pullback hold, I remain bullish with upside targets of $210 and $215 as the trend stays intact. This setup continues to support a strategy of buying dips in alignment with the dominant upward momentum.
🐄 Feeder Cattle (GFQ25) – August Contract Holds Firm in Bullish Continuation
The August feeder cattle contract (GFQ25) continues its upward trajectory with solid confirmation of trend strength. I went long at $284.50 on April 11, and price action has since validated that entry.
Profit targets remain set at $295 and $300, levels that appear increasingly achievable given the strength in feedlot margins and supportive seasonal demand. While some consolidation wouldn’t surprise me, the overall picture remains bullish.
🐖 Lean Hogs (HEM25) – Trend Confirmation Brings Higher Price Objectives
Lean hogs have also confirmed their uptrend, with HEM25 breaking above the key $94.70 level. My initial targets of $97.00 (hit on April 16) and $99.00 (reached on April 22) have both been achieved.
Following a minor correction, I re-entered long at $98.60. In my opinion, the next leg higher appears underway with price potentially targeting $103, $104.20, and stretching as high as $108.00–$110.00 over the coming sessions. Domestic demand appears stable, and the export environment has remained supportive.
📊 Chart Levels & Technical Observations
- LEM25: Watching trendline support near $203.50; MACD bullish, Williams %R nearing overbought.
- GFQ25: Holding above 20-day moving average; bullish volume profile adds confirmation.
- HEM25: Breakout volume at $99 confirms trend; RSI suggests room to run before exhaustion.
🧠 Great Thought of the Day
“Bull markets climb a wall of worry. Don’t let short-term noise distract from long-term structure.”
🛡️ Final Thoughts
As always, this is just my opinion and should not be considered as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s essential to stay informed and manage risk accordingly.
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John S. Simpson Jr.
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading
[email protected]
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