Grain number nerds, like me, are ready to dig into the data which the USDA presents to us tomorrow at 11:00 Chicago time. We’ve had the time to prepare for the figures and as of this writing the consensus among analysts is that the USDA might decrease final production from the November figures in corn and beans as well as carryover projections in the Supply/Demand reports. Wheat stocks might be a little higher which might mean carryover a little higher than those presented in November. Winter wheat seeding is anticipated to drop close to 1 million acres from the 2018/2019 crop year figure.
The numbers may jolt the grains out of the trading range we’ve shuffled in for the past few months, or not? We are always advocates of going into crop reports as even and open minded as possible as the USDA has surprised us before.
Since the November report corn and bean spreads have been stagnant while wheat spreads have strengthened. It seems as though nearby Corn/Wheat at $1.40 is in its happy place as ventures above $1.50 and below $1.30 found no carry through. It’s almost time when weather gets more and more important as whet breaks dormancy and producers prepare for lots of corn plantings which are anticipated this year…
March deliveries are a few weeks away and we might anticipate more of the same for all grains in terms of spread direction.
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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