Soybean Complex: Recent Technical Developments

John LunneyGeneral Commentary

July Soybeans

     Soybean contract holds channel line support and presses higher to overhead resistance just above 927 before pulling back to close at 915.4. Daily candle establishes high-wave doji formation with current level resting right on channel line. A violation of channel support sniffs out 909.6 x wave low. Holding hear marks what could be a b wave extreme of a more complex w-x-y formation. If contract can gain its footing it will move higher to complete the y leg. Overhead target comes in at roughly 937. In the event that the channel line holds in early trading I’d be expecting a similar advance to take place. On the other hand a hold below 909 won’t look good. Expect slide to +/- 905.4. Could get dicey here. A violation of lows flushes to 892-888.

 

     Soybean Meal 

 

Similar action unfolds in the meal contract. Contract closes right on channel line support. It must be noted that today’s high came in a tick below what I have marked as an intermediate i wave low. If the choppy rally we have witnesses over the last four days represents a iv then we witnessing a v wave decline. Immediate support just below at 293.5. This is the save level. A continued hold below 295 threatens to unravel. A violation of recent low extends to +/- 291. Wave projections rest just below at 287.

 

Soybean Oil

     Today’s early morning low holds previously mentioned inner channel line support. Market presses higher to 32.69 just missing overhead projection at 32.80 before pulling back slightly to finish at 32.42. A dip from here finds support at 32 to 31.84. A hold beneath 32.00 will look threatening. Expect test of recent lows. A violation sets up further price declines. Downside objective comes in at +/- 30.00. Holding its footing above 32.00 sets up another advance. Overhead target zone at 33 to 33.4.