Commentary: The soybeans witnessed a lower trade today. The market is under pressure for a couple reasons. The overall demand remains weak for exports. This is due to the Brazilian exports of approx 13 mmt during March, a record. The main destination is China. The USDA numbers yesterday showed a larger carry than anticipated. This could prove important, and could mean the crop last year was understated. The meal followed beans lower in the old crop. It appears that new cases of African swine fever have been detected in China. The meal has been supported of late from news the Argentinian exports remain stalled. Nothing changed there. The bean oil market continues to decline with the crude market. The demand for Bio is questioned now until this situation is rectified. Guessing now is foolish. The reality is we need to first stabilize. Where that will be is dependent on demand. The reality is we are swimming in crude for the time being. Demand lost is gone. We need time and some demand with less production, which has not occurred. The main point for the soy is the market has a lot to deal with. Technically speaking, both beans and meal (May) traded below the 14,21 MA today. The near term weakness should be watched. The meal spreads are also giving back the inverse, but have not traded below the moving averages watched. The bean oil is below the 14,21 MA.
Trade Suggestion(s)
NA today
Risk/Reward
Futures-
Options –
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449
312-208-8836
jwalsh@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.