play the long ball

John WalshGeneral Commentary

The soy is bouncing and has some reason to at present, given the Chinese purchases and the weather concerns. The soy yields are something to watch as harvest gets underway. This of course will be important . It is equally important to remember the global soy situation remains more than ample. The SA planting has some weather concerns. However, it seems probable that the ARG acres will increase given the soy to corn ratio at decision time. In addition, the global soy demand is less than a year ago given the Chinese ASF situation. This will reduce soy needs , but will increase demand for the products. Mostly vegoils. It is important to note that the ARG have had seven crushing plants approved for exports of protein to China. Also the black sea now is sending various meals to China. The main point here is watch the oilshare. There could be a significant move yet to come this year. A couple thoughts. The beans can rally a bit more. Look to sell old crop stocks on a rally nov 19 to 910-920, new crop sales should be considered in nov 20 at 950-965. This may prove rich in the long run. In my opinion the soy from a macro global perspective has changed. The world will offer competition to us especially in the meal. This could change pricing structures. Sell rallies and take profits in the cash. As always these are my thoughts, quantify your risk.

Be Well