The crusty old timers always say that we kill crops with hot and dry and cool and wet may hurt quality during harvest and delay things a little while during plantings yet, moisture is mandatory when making a crop. Of course, there are acres under water and this is devastating in certain areas but we need to play out plantings, pollination and first killing frost. Lots can happen yet normal weather from this point forward might allow us to have a very good crop. We have to play it out!
Friday’s acreage and stocks reports might provide for a reason to make some attitude adjustment yet the market typically is weather driven from April to October. Too wet, too cool, last frost in the Spring and first frost in the Fall might be most of the focus for the next few months. Weather forecasters might be calling for El Nino and we’ll be looking at sunspots and volcanic activity to generate any reason to knock patterns……………We’re at decade low prices yet we may have seen the last decade where easy money ruled our markets as the exception and not the rule. So, the micro end of our markets is weather focused and the macro side is central bank driven. Trade deals might generate a short term move yet, end users will find supplies from someone on this planet. South America has beans. Europe has wheat, yet they might have exhausted old crop quality stocks in the past month………..but seedings are going well. The US has plenty of old crop corn and corn/unwheat vomitoxin stocks …….We might need a flood of 1993 Iowa proportions and/or a pattern change to hot and dry to generate any major price moves in the next few weeks. We are only 7 weeks away from winter wheat harvest and we’ll be looking at any potential late frosts when we’re heading to see if the few acres we planted have a good year.
More corn acres from last year and fewer bean acres is what’s expected on Friday. How much depends on Mother Nature. Basis levels suggest adequate corn and bean stocks on hand while wheat stocks may not be as deep as the USDA has been projecting in previous reports as basis levels remain staunch! Figures at 11 Chicago time on Friday!
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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