Blood in Streets- Prelude WSJ front page today

Alan Palmer Asset Management, Grains, Livestock Leave a Comment

Some important levels in Charts.  No burning desire in stocks,  NASD is the bad boy for host of reasons, spreads?

Blood in Streets-?  See WSJ front page that goes with what I have said about old establishment,” they ain’t leaving and will have to be pulled out by head of hair.  USA and Venezuela.  Hamburg?  Trump beating a CNN reporter.  It’s great isn’t it?  The ugly or nice part of this next cycle is upon us now.  The time to trade is now

ARP Wheat Pit, by Ann Ponce

I don’t get feedback on charts so will only put a few in here today.  Meat alert.  Hogs also but hey, why do they go opposite directions?  Come on.

Is the US dollar ready to blow? I’m bearish but more a hunch, a macro hunch we will be swimming in dollars as the FRB FED experiment ends.

soybeans- CFTC data reveals who bought at the olive line $9.06.  This is a 1st-time-ever on this discovery, inquire if appeals to you.  312.957.8248.

Bonds- I suggested 156-157 trendline’s sell area and half way in the cash 30 year coupon, 2 trendlines, now down $5,000 per future ($100k notional).  This is in slow motion to me but its going to get more volatile anytime now.  Worldwide bonds markets tumbling last week which happens to have been at a few of my levels.  Now well off highs.

Recap here possible dupe– Aug Soybeans had OLB 1st time down of $9.06 so hit&filled are the olive algo’s players.  Given out for a month early.   The algo that hurts the most ….

Its so funny how the crowd thought beans sub $9.00 and sold in front of.  It’s like this everywhere if you need me to review but here soybeans hit the olive line before qtr-end just like others enabling you to buy and have 20cents winner before USDA which I suggested buying anyway.  9.23 was OLB#1 and a TL making it pivot into report.

Results are a 7%, 64 cent consecutive up day risk/reward situation.  I call it $100 max down-strike, $3,200 seven day payoff.  Maint margin under $2,000.  This was an investment trade.

I think I describe these situational setups’ correct.  You close your eyes and buy $9.06 Aug, SN 907 and hang on as long as your a winner. 3 cents, 5 cents, what’s your risk profile?

If you have better rule that may be.  I can’t come up with what always cost me so much money right before turns.  The olive line.

Beans- Now you have to hang on long or pitch half, but keep the runner.  $10, $12, at least your in when NY buys it all.  Anything that was for sale is sold last week.

This completes ALL OLIVE BUYS now soybeans and soymeal also 297.20 was it?  All buys under here in full disclosure in meal.  Beans next might be 50cent lower next time down, if but I thought these were the drought play in beans for Summer so you have to stay long $9.06’s or never catch non-human decipherable rally due to tendency of swift value play that all got wrong as counter-trend move in my opinion.  We’ve seen this too many times if you study it close.

If you sold up by trendlines like I like for several reasons, take in shorts on red lines, here and in notes today also. 30 year sept bonds is here

I try to find very low risk areas that coincide with a huge amount of bearishness in this case.  It was a great place to take off shorts also and step back on $1.50 break off those 3 monthly SP’s in winter. 10.28-ish had 3 #’s, then under 1012 nailed it.  Lots of these high impact low risk levels that provide nice opportunities like 7% in 7 days.

Keep your eye on bonds, major half way failure cited cash yield, a while now.  Longest of longs also, like always now a days it seems.

wheat- here the commodity funds blindly buy in diamond pattern right up to sell levels.

The powder blue- If you need to sell meal, well, call me.

 

Best Always,

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *