The stocks numbers on Friday may be considered to be more accurate than the planting figures as Mother Nature has been letting us know that she has a lot to say about what gets in and when. The producer desires to put in more corn acres as the average guess if floating around 91.250 million acres and this compares with last year’s 89.129 million acres. The trade senses that the increase in corn with come at the expense of beans as the average bean guess is 86.2 million acres compared with last year’s 89.196 million acres. You know how surgical the USDA and grain traders are and these figures are precise!………………..We are looking for a small increase in spring wheat seeding from last year’s 13.2 million acres. Durum is expected to be close to unchanged from last year’s 2.065 million acres and winter wheat acres came out earlier and might we tweaked from the average guess of 31.460 million acres, the lowest in decades!
These figures will give us something to talk about in the micro aspect of the market while the central banks talk of easier money might give us a little support in the macro sense of the market. Please remember that we are at month’s end and quarter’s end and the potential exists for a ratcheting market as farmers might not sell/hedge anything unless we get a very sharp rally and that will happen if and only if the funds want to exit short positions which are close to a record in wheat and corn. Better weather will shift the burden of proof back to the farmer long as recent moisture might be considered a short term headache and a long term blessing.
We are in growing season right now and weather is a key element which we will be looking at every day. Keeping an eye on the Palmer Index and watching the Missouri, Illinois, Mississippi and Ohio River flood stages will keep us busy for a few weeks.
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
Join
My Mailing List
Steve Bruce
Walsh Trading
312 985 0156
888 391 7894 toll free
312 256 0109 fax
sbruce@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading
53 W Jackson Suite 750
Chicago, Il 60604
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for
all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial
condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the
exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of
futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than
their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF
FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this
specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be
construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI
does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a
research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.