The beans were up but did not follow through. The condition ratings were unchanged. I am noticing some structural things to be aware of. The meal, although higher, the bear spreads are working again. This may be important. Also the oil spreads are attempting to stabilize. It will be important to watch the Indian monsoons. It is my belief we may be on the verge of a change in the oil share. These changes can be dynamic and long term. The outlook for the South American acreage is up. This is due to many factors, however, look for more global acreage. This, on top of the US paying for more beans. It all tips the scale. I am hoping that we are able to rally beans into the USDA report. This, in my opinion, sets up an opportunity for further sales. Please be aware that Nov 2019 is now at $920. This is creating a hedging opportunity. 930-940 becomes a major opportunity, in my opinion. Let’s see how the evening goes.
The corn was higher and the market has the fundamental reasons to move higher still. I am a bit bothered by the fact that we could not see the highs of the day taken out on the close. The condition ratings remain steady. This is not a charge to the market, however, most estimate that, given these numbers, the USDA should be in a 3-4 bu increase. This will still keep the carry in a friendly scenario. The global numbers remain friendly. The main point is look for higher prices in this time period as the demand is real as is the global feedgrain issues.
” I DONT KNOW WHY WE ARE HERE, BUT I’M PRETTY SURE IT IS NOT IN ORDER TO ENJOY OURSELVES ” – LUDWIG WITTGENSTEIN
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
800-993-5449
jwalsh@walshtrading.com