AG TIME – Back and Forth

John WalshGeneral Commentary

I don’t have a lot to comment on. The complex is paying attention to rhetoric, theories, hopes and dreams, in my humble opinion. There is a sincere hope that the trade conflict is sorted out. As I have said, it is my thought that it will be, to the favor of the US. However, that does not change a couple of simple facts. The first is that the Chinese economy is slowing. This may be a longer term situation. This is leading to some contraction in animal production, which leads to demand contraction for feed. The second is that regardless of the trade deal, regardless of the production, the world is overly supplied of soy. PERIOD. There is no way around this short of an act of GOD. (These are my opinions based on the historic numbers.) Now I have been wrong in the past, but it is my belief that rallies in beans are hedging opportunities to the producer. Look out at 2019 Nov. Prices approaching 970 and above represent value in my opinion. I believe the long term may hold some changes in the oil share as well. If my thoughts regarding the soy are correct, vegoils may take a relative strength to the protein.

The corn came under pressure with early buying beans selling feedgrains, It is my belief that corn does not have a top yet. It sure would be nice, however, to see a couple days of follow through. This is really a difficult trade. A close above march futures 382.5-383 could be the tech help the market needs for more buying. The fundamental picture remains intact at present with US corn in a favorable picture for the time being. Continue to watch feedgrain issues out of the Black Sea region. As always quantify your risk regardless of which side of the market you are on.

To discuss any ideas or to formulate long term strategies please give me a call at 800 993 5449 or jwalsh@walshtrading.com. I appreciate all the feedback I receive. All opinions are welcomed

” WHEN YOU LOSE TALK LITTLE, WHEN YOU WIN TALK LESS ” TOM BRADY

BE WELL