Ag Commentary

John Walsh Grains Leave a Comment

The USDA will release numbers tomorrow. The soy complex was in a general retreat today. yield reports remain solid across the board. The weather for Brazil is improving with up to 2 inches and 70% coverage.  The production possibility for Brazil will remain high with the moisture situation sorted out. the Argentinian is still in question. The markets are not focused on the macro fundamental story in my opinion. rather on money flows and fund positions. The global stocks remain burdensome. Im not sure this changes any time soon. The bet that we will experience crop failures does not seem prudent. Rather beans are historically high as is meal given the fundamentals and at some point the board should move lower. The cash markets are already weakening and will remain so without a global problem.

 

The corn continues to drift. The hope is a adjustment of acres that perhaps draws stock numbers down and we can justify a slight rally. Aside from that possibility corn will remain sideways to lower. Fortunate for corn the Ethanol Industry does exist or this would be so dismal. The problem for corn in the longer run is the Argentinian farmer is moving towards corn this year, which will ensure export competition. lets see what happens tomorrow

 

Be Well

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