The USDA never ceases to amaze. The soy was a bit of a surprise and allows for a friendly move to sell levels. The carry lowered to 460 puts the domestic market back to a more realistic historical norm. Thoughts. Look for nove as a opportunity to make last old crop sales between 930-950. In addition make some sales new …
Grain Spreads: Trade Wars, Weather, Headlines, WASDE
Rumors are swirling into the weekend that China and the US are close to announcing a near term trade deal. Equities have responded with a sizable rally. That sentiment is spilling over into grains and then livestock. The result is sizable short covering in Corn, Soybeans, Soy meal, and all Wheat classes. Question is do the grains extend this push, …
Livestock Report
The December Lean Hogs contract gap opened higher trading above resistance at 69.80 and making the high at 70.325 for the session. It collapsed and traded down nearly closing the gap from yesterday’s 68.625 high making the low at 68.75. It bounced off the low and settled at 69.475. If price and hold settlement a re-test of Wednesday’s high …
Grain Spreads: Soy History Lesson
Funds have been covering their short positions in the soybean market en masse ahead of this weekends weather, China trade talks, and tomorrows uncertain crop production report from the USDA. The average trade guess for ending stocks is at 496 million bushels. A far cry from 640 million in September, and near 1 billion estimated just a few months ago. …
soy baked in cake
The USDA report tomorrow will offer some clarity. I question the continual ability of meal to rally 10-15$ per ton. This makes little sense to me. The reality of the cold weather would contribute to a friendly soy oil situation. The problem with soy oil is the competitive oils are cheaper in some cases. Looking forward. today the nov beans …
Livestock Report
The December Lean Hogs contract tested support at 63.325 this morning making the low just below it at 63.075. An impressive rally erupted and price rallied the remainder of the session nearly going up the expanded limit for the day. The high of the session was 68.625 which is right at resistance at the 8 (68.578) and 13 (68.782) …
Grain Spreads: Covering Emerges
Short covering in Corn comes on two fronts so far this week that has resulted in new near term highs for Dec 19 and March 20 corn. First off is weather. The NWS Midday US weather forecast in line with prior forecast runs are predicting that snow accumulation of 15-25” will be widespread across the Dakotas. Regional accumulation upwards of …
Grain Spreads: Movement Coming
After Mondays somewhat surprising quarterly bullish stocks report for Corn and Soybeans that rallied prices for the week, wheat unfortunately has been stuck within its recent ranges. In fact rallies in KC wheat continue to be sold. After trading to new 6 week highs at 420 on Monday, KC found willing sellers at 420 and 415. It finished down slightly …
corn thoughts
The Usda report was a game changer in a sense. The market has been able to fill the gap at 392.75 dec. The reduction in stocks opens the door for a carry in the 1.6 billion range. The weather now will be important and price important as the lack of maturity could push further yield reductions. This would be a …
soy thoughts
The market has been moving around since the usda report. The oilshare has been whipped back and forth. The close today at approx 33% could be important. As Ive said the 33.7% level will be important. A test of that level could make way for a move to 35.7% The outlook has changed a bit in the short run with …