The December Dollar Index has rebounded from the 96.00 consolidation area. The Dollar Index is apparently showing strength to move potentially toward 98.50 to 99.00 area in my opinion. The US economy should continue to strengthen further according to recent data. A flight into Dollar holdings such as Stocks and Bonds from hedge funds, pensions and speculators should help keep …
Black Swans and Uncertainties
One of the important factors facing all markets, in my opinion, is monetary policy domestically and internationally! We’ve experienced a decade of “helicopter money” when it felt that all breaks in all markets, sans interest rates, were opportunities to own………….Hedge funds thrived as Middle America dived! ………………Now it appears, according to the most recent Federal Reserve Committee minutes, that our …
Lean Hogs
Lean Hogs rallied today as African swine fever fears spread through the market. A major Chinese feed company Tangrenshen Group said one of its subsidiaries’ feed tested positive for the disease. This increases concern that China has been unable to control the disease and its spread throughout the country. There have been over 50 cases of the disease found in …
AG TIME – Two Divergent Paths
The Soy was down a bit today. This rally of late seems to be based on optimism that the US China relations will cool and demand will be restored. Perhaps. It is my belief the relationship will be restored to the Liking of Trump. However, I also believe we are witnessing some demand changes in China. The stagnation that is …
What’s Next?
It might appear that we are approaching a holiday atmosphere in the grain and bean markets…………………………We are wrapping up harvest in the northern hemisphere and starting to escalate harvest in the southern hemisphere with wheat and planting and pollination with corn and beans…………………………………..Mother Nature appears to be becoming more helpful with the final 20% of corn and bean harvesting …
Livestock Report
The Cattle markets took one to the chin today making new lows for the down trend. Frustrated longs were in liquidation mode as the December Live Cattle broke down nearly going down limit. It tested the 113.90 support level while the January feeders tested its support at 143.50. Both markets settled above their support levels giving hope for a retracement …
Grain Spreads: Rolling Rolling Rolling
The best thing we can say about today is that its Friday and ends a forgettable week for many commodity bulls. The icing on the cake for bearish commodity news was highlighted by the FOMC yesterday as they are staying the course for now with planned rate hikes well into 2019. Of course news and events can enter into the …
Back to Fundamentals
In the micro-economic world domestic corn and wheat stocks are tight while bean stocks are plentiful. In the macroeconomic world as money supply tightens there’s less urgency to chase any rally in anything as it appears that we are still deflating from the easy money years of 2008 to 2016 when every trader bought dips and made money in everything …
AG TIME – Time to Settle in
The USDA report is in the books. There really were not any surprises from my thought regarding the markets. To recap. The US carry is growing. The USDA only reduced Chinese imports 4 mmt. The 18/19 marketing year the carry is projected to swell to 955 million bushels. This is off the charts. 500-600 is off the charts. At this …
China Census Curve Ball!!!!!!!!!!!
New Census Chinese census figures jostled the world supply/demand figures……………live and learn! Our next USDA report is on December 11 but, it is only Supply/Demand and some traders consider the December report to be the least important number of the year……………..The big one will be in January when the USDA throws the kitchen sink at us …